079
FXUS63 KIWX 250557
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
157 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Chances for rain showers and a few thunderstorms overnight into
 this morning. Highs today climbing into the 70s and low 80s
 inland, and the 60s near Lake Michigan.

- Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and night with both severe storms and possibly heavy
  rain/hydro issues existing.

- Lingering showers may impact activities on Memorial Day and
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

No additional risk for strong to severe convection for the
remainder of the night with the area worked over from afternoon
convection/outflow. Main cold front still bring showers and a
few elevated storms through overnight with at least a low-mid
chance PoP retained.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A low pressure system moving through the Midwest today is expected
to bring thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. A
line of storms currently moving through northern Illinois could
reach the western extent of our forecast area as early as 3 pm.
However, isolated storms are beginning to pop up ahead of this line,
in the vicinity of a warm front draped from Berrien County southeast
through Allen County and into Ohio. This will lift slowly northward
this afternoon, and sfc CAPE will increase to over 2000 J/kg with
dewpoints rising into the 60s. Yet bulk shear is marginal at only
around 25-30 kts, so main threat will be strong outflow winds. High-
res models have not done a very good job capturing the ongoing
convection, so confidence is low in the exact timing and location of
storms, but still think the best chances for rain will be between 8
pm and 4 am when the cold front pushes in. The front will still be
over the area Saturday morning with lingering showers, but as it
makes its way east, drier air under northwesterly flow will dominate
through Saturday night.

Another low pressure system will arrive on Sunday afternoon with
more showers and thunderstorms. This has a better chance of severe
weather with NAM sfc CAPE up to 4000 J/kg and bulk shear 50+ kts.
There is also a greater threat for heavy rain on Sunday evening with
precipitable water increasing to around 2 inches. Rain may be slow
to move east Monday morning, but by Memorial Day evening, most
locations should be dry. It will also be much cooler behind this
system with highs only in the low 70s and breezy winds.

Large scale troughing over the eastern half of the US means that
unsettled weather will continue on Tuesday. On Wednesday, high
pressure will build over the plains, and drier conditions will
return, though it will remain cool. It will stay dry on Thursday,
but warm a bit as the ridge shifts east.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the terminal
through the period. There are a few showers lingering around
tonight (especially east of KSBN), with more focused activity
expected with the incoming cold front later this morning into
early afternoon. Have added a mention for additional
showers with VCTS and MVFR ceilings as we do get an area of
steeper mid level lapse rates moving in with the cold front-
which will pass through KSBN between 9-13z/KFWA between 12-16z.
High pressure builds in rapidly behind the exiting cold front
this afternoon into the overnight, shifting winds to the west-
northwest and putting an end to any precipitation chances. Winds
will be light and variable overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Steinwedel
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...MCD