146
FXUS63 KIWX 081515
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1115 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers from mid afternoon into this evening, most
  numerous in northwestern Indiana and far southern Lower
  Michigan.

- At this time, the only chance for rain this upcoming week is
  Thursday night which includes a chance for showers and storms.

- Cool today through Tuesday with highs in the 70s, becoming
  very warm Thursday into the following weekend with highs in
  the 80s. 90s possible late.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Forecast generally on track with some challenges lingering on
timing, coverage and possibly intensity of showers expected mid
afternoon into this evening. 2 areas of rain/rain showers were
located from eastern Iowa into much of Wisconsin as well as
across southern Illinois. In between these, light radar returns
were noted across central and portions of northern Illinois that
are not reaching the ground, which is no surprise based on the
12Z KILX sounding still showing a fair amount of dry air below
800 mb. The area of showers to the north is being fed by a
narrow influx of low 60 dewpoints along and behind the warm
front with CAMs suggesting this moister air should advect into
the area later this afternoon and evening. Questions remain as
to whether the current area weakens and then additional showers
develop along the increasing convergence along the boundary and
influx of better moisture. Making some minor changes with
regards to timing, but for now holding off on reintroducing
thunder given poor overall instability despite the somewhat
higher dewpoints.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

An upper level system was just upstream from IL to far east KS.
This system will move east today and bring showers to the area.
Continued to keep thunder out given the lack of instability and
insufficiency of larger scale lift. The GFS has been consistent
with this system and still favors timing in about a 9 hour
window from 18Z to 03Z early tonight per 305K isentropic analysis.
The back/west side of the upper trof will remain over the region
until upper level ridging builds into the area later in the week.
Have kept the lone chance for showers/thunder Thursday night as
a weak front moves southeast. There is an increasingly stronger
signal for a hot pattern to develop just past the end of the
forecast period as reflected in the latest CPC outlook (risk of
excessive heat). Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s through
Tuesday then highs in the 80s the rest of the week. Given 850 mb
temperatures approaching 20C, highs in the lower 90s are possible
just past the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions expected to give way to a period of MVFR cigs
and scattered showers (best chances at KSBN) late this afternoon
into this evening as a cold front sags south into northern IN.
Southwest winds will pick up otherwise in advance of the front
late this morning and afternoon with gusts near 20 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel