800
FXUS63 KIWX 251051
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
651 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chances for rain showers this morning. Highs today
  climbing into the 70s and low 80s inland, and the 60s near
  Lake Michigan.

- Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and night with both severe storms and possibly heavy
  rain/hydro issues existing.

- Lingering showers/embedded thunder may impact activities on
  Memorial Day through Wednesday.

- Hazardous swimming conditions for Lake Michigan beaches in La
  Porte County in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan
  Memorial Day through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

After a convectively messy evening, only a few showers
and thunderstorms remain over the area as the cold front is
currently pushing into the western parts of the CWA. These
showers with a few rumbles of thunder will remain possible as
the frontal boundary continues to move eastward through the
morning and into the early afternoon for areas east of I-69.
Clearing skies will move into the area on the heels of the
frontal passage and by later this afternoon mostly sunny skies
will be in place along with a break in the activity for this
holiday weekend. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s
for areas around Lake Michigan with temperatures a bit warmer
inland with 70s to low 80s.

Another disturbance will move into the Great Lakes region from
the Plains on Sunday and ahead of the circulation another warm
front will move in from the southwest and bring a surge of
moist air into the area with dew points going from the 40s to
the 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures will also move in with
highs on Sunday getting into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Gusty
winds and showers will also accompany the arrival of the warm
frontal boundary as it moves into the area. Surface based CAPES
will again increase to around 1000 to 1200 J/kg and decent mid-
level lapse rates around 7 deg/km will be available by Sunday
afternoon. 0-3km Bulk shear values up to 40 kts will also be
available on Sunday afternoon. As a vigorous cold front moves
into the area on Sunday this will allow thunderstorm activity to
develop. SPC currently has a majority of our CWA in a slight
risk for Sunday. So strong to severe storms will once again be
possible. Wind will again be the main threat but large hail and
a few tornadoes would not be out of the question. With heavy
downpours at times with any of the thunderstorms there may be
some flooding issues and will continue to monitor for that.

With the trough remaining over the Great Lakes region mostly
cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and chances for
showers/embedded thunder will remain for Memorial Day into the
mid week. Highs each day through Wednesday will be in the upper
60s to low 70s across the area with the coolest temperatures
near Lake Michigan. By late Wednesday, broad ridging over the
central CONUS will begin to build into the area bringing a
warming trend and mainly dry weather conditions into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites, with a
brief window of MVFR ceilings possible this morning (Mainly at
KFWA after 12z). A cold front is crossing northern Indiana
right now (11z) and will continue it`s eastward progression
through the early afternoon. Showers and MVFR ceilings are
possible through 17z at KFWA. Ceilings behind the front range
anywhere from 1500-2500ft, but it`s possible they improve a
before reaching KFWA thanks to rapidly advancing subsidence
moving in from the west.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD