345
FXUS63 KIWX 010653
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
253 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers slowly arriving through today, lingering into the
  overnight hours.

- Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms next week.

- Turning cooler late next week.

 &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An upper-level low over Missouri early this morning will continue
to slowly track east-northeast. Moisture transport from the Gulf is
ample, per water vapor imagery, with a comma shape developing on
satellite as the surface low eventually occludes. High pressure
lingering over the Mid-Atlantic has slowed the time of arrival for
rain today, but I do expect rain to reach northwest Ohio prior
to sunset. The chance for thunder has been pretty mediocre
leading up to this moment, and parameters remain poor.
Therefore, have jumped off the porch and removed thunder for
this event.

Circling back to moisture transport for a moment, HREF PWATS have
decreased slightly over the past 24 hours but remain unseasonably
high near 1.5 inches (90th percentile for DTX sounding climatology
is 1.31 inches; 1.48 inches at ILX). Boundary parallel flow along
the cold/occluding front will present some risk of training but in
the absence of convection, the overall flood risk low. Storm total
rainfall is forecast to range from about 0.50 to 1 inch.
Showers taper off soon after sunrise Sunday over northwest Ohio;
dry elsewhere.

The in-house blend remains overzealous for the chance of
showers and storms Monday associated with a low moving through
the far Northern Plains. Surface high pressure locally looks to
keep this rain chance at bay until at least sunset over
northwest Indiana. This will be a target of opportunity in the
days ahead. For now, have done my best to reduce POPs with
neighbors for the daytime Monday. The better chance for showers
and storms is overnight.

A ridge off the southwest US amplifies in the days that follow,
sending active west and northwest flow through the Midwest. This is
punctuated by a deep trough sweeping through Wednesday, with a
widespread chance of showers and storms followed by cooler
temperatures to finish the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Shortwave trough will lift through the area later today with
rapidly deteriorating aviation conditions this evening. Adjusted
timing of heaviest precip/thunder chances later as low level dry
air will likely be slower to erode than most guidance suggests.
Thunder chances also appear very minimal given poor lapse rates
and very little MUCAPE, but will hold onto a brief VCTS mention
for now. It could be removed in later forecasts. Concensus
guidance suggests IFR ceilings at FWA and LIFR at SBN Saturday
night. Held ceilings a bit higher for now as models have tended
to go too low with ceilings in the 18-30 hour time range.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...AGD