412
FXUS63 KIWX 311923
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
323 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat slower trends for arrival of showers and isolated
  thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain will
  be the main concern.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday
  through Thursday.

- Large temperature gradients possible due to precipitation and
  clouds Saturday and later this week, but overall still near or
  above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Next 12 to 24 hours will likely be dry for many areas with
models continue to trend somewhat slower with onset of
increasing moisture and lift. Some concern that best influx of
moisture may not arrive till closer to 00Z Sun as the upper low
and associated sfc reflection draw closer. Have slowed onset
considerably through 18Z but maintained likely or categorical
pops during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunder chances
still looking rather bleak but still maintained a mention. As
mentioned by the overnight forecaster, highs tomorrow will be
highly dependent on how fast the rain and clouds arrives. Have
increased temps slightly westward but not getting to crazy at
this point.

Limited ridging will move in for Sunday and at least the first
half of Monday before additional waves move towards the region
with chances for showers and maybe a few storms once again.
Confidence is low on how these chances evolve with timing of
specific waves still varying in models. Greatest chances still
reside with the main upper level low in the Plains that will
deepen and move east towards the region mid week. No significant
changes have been made in the forecast at this time due to the
timing challenges noted.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will continue this forecast period as a ridge of
high pressure slowly shifts east of the area. South-southeast
return flow will continue on backside of this high pressure
today, generally around 10 knots. High clouds will increase
tonight downstream of an upper level disturbance that will make
its way across Missouri. Better low level moisture return will
initially be limited by southeast component of low level wind
and overall weak magnitudes to the advective wind fields.
Better moisture advection should not arrive at terminals until
after 18Z Saturday afternoon in association with elevated warm
frontal feature. Primarily dry conditions should continue at
terminals through midday Saturday, with a ramping up of chances
during mid-late afternoon hours. A few thunderstorms will be
possible, but overall instability fields still appear quite weak
suggesting only an isolated thunder potential.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili