067
FXUS63 KIWX 021902
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
302 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and slightly less humid through Monday.

- Low confidence chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday
  night into Tuesday.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

- Cooler with lingering showers Thursday into the weekend.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An overall active pattern is expected through the forecast period
with brief lulls in between each key feature.

A "cool" front has nearly cleared the forecast area with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 in its wake and low to
mid 60s ahead of it. Cloud cover has been stubborn to depart
even with increasing subsidence. Sufficient convergence and
modest instability has allowed for a few showers to develop in
far southeast area which will quickly exit by 4 pm. The cloud
cover sticking around leads to a more uncertain forecast in
whether fog will develop across the area. Considered adding a
patchy fog mention given cross-over temps should be exceeded and
plenty of low level moisture remains. Will defer to the evening
shift to monitor trends.

A northern stream closed low, currently located off the NW US coast,
will move east through the first half of the week, brining an
eventual shift in our pattern. Prior to that, shower/storm chances
will be modulated by poorly modeled, subtle disturbances that may
largely be convectively induced (MCVs). Greatest plume of higher
theta-e air will reside just to our west with the nose of it
intruding on far NW areas Monday evening before spreading slowly
east Tuesday. Models handle convective chances in multiple ways,
none of which seem to suggest more than chc pops Mon night into
Tuesday with no threat for severe weather.

Models are in agreement on the aforementioned upper level low moving
to northern ND by 00Z Wed with the longwave trough digging further
into Great Lakes by 18Z Wed. The closed low itself will actual
shift northward somewhat, keeping the strongest dynamics well
removed from the area. A cold front is still expected to sweep
through Tuesday night into Wednesday with good chances for what
should be non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Abundant
moisture will lead to pockets of heavy rainfall with hydro
trends needing to be monitored.

Beyond Wednesday, medium range models then diverge on handling of
the southward shift of the upper low over the Great Lakes through
the remainder of the period. These discrepancies are posing
challenges in not only forecasted temperatures but timing of
periodic shower chances. The result is a splattering of slgt chc to
chc pops through the end of the forecast with highs near or below
normal.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As the cold front is now almost through our entire forecast
area, low stratus will slowly continue to lift through the
afternoon with VFR expected by late afternoon and early evening.
The TAFs will likely need amendments when this occurs, because
for now, have left MVFR ceilings in there. There is a lot of
lingering moisture near the ground, and as clouds dissipate and
winds diminish tonight, fog will be possible at KSBN and KFWA.
Have added a TEMPO group from 09Z to 13Z for both TAF sites
given this possibility. Dry conditions and VFR then return for
most of the day Monday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Johnson