266
FXUS63 KIWX 270815
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
415 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and thunderstorms may impact activities
  today through Wednesday.

- Hazardous swimming conditions for Lake Michigan beaches in La
  Porte County in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan today
  through Wednesday.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Cold front currently sitting northeast to southwest orientated
over the CWA and sitting roughly just east of Three Rivers, MI
down to just east of Peru, IN. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have accompanied the front as it moves eastward
with just a few stronger cells from time to time. Drier air
beginning to move in from the west in the wake of the frontal
boundary. These showers and storms will continue to move
eastward out of the area through around 7AM EDT and will get a
small break from precipitation across the area for the first
part of the day today. However, with a trough sitting over
Ontario, Canada and the Great Lakes region a few shortwave
disturbances will ripple through the main flow over the next
couple of days keeping clouds around and bringing periods of
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Just enough to be
annoying.

Highs today will be cooler with temperatures in the 60s over
the northern parts of the CWA and areas near Lake Michigan with
low 70s elsewhere. The first of the disturbances will move
through the area this evening/tonight bringing
showers/thunderstorms and some gusty winds. Gusts up to 25 mph
this evening.

On Tuesday, a few lingering showers will be possible through the
day until the afternoon when another disturbance moves through
bringing better chances of showers/thunderstorms and breezy
conditions into Wednesday evening. Highs on Tuesday will be
just a tad warmer with areas close to the lake only in the upper
60s and the rest of the area in the lower 70s. High amplitude
ridging over the central CONUS will begin to move eastward into
the area by late Wednesday and will allow for skies to begin
clearing out and bring a return to dry weather. High
temperatures will remain a bit cooler than normal levels, which
for South Bend is 73 degrees and 75 degrees for Fort Wayne,
through Thursday. Morning lows on Thursday and Friday will get
down into the lower to mid 40s with good radiational cooling
with mostly clear skies due to the ridging. Warming trend late
week with Friday highs returning to above normal levels in the
mid 70s for most locations and Saturday warmer yet with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

The next chance of showers/thunderstorms returns by Saturday
afternoon with a weak trough pushing into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions at the moment will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR over
the next few hours, behind the cold front at KSBN (lower
ceilings upstream) and at KFWA tonight along/behind the cold
front. Light rain over KFWA atm associated with a convective
complex to our southeast will gradually taper off for a brief
period before a line of showers and thunderstorms along the cold
front moves in. Right now the line of storms extends from
Kalamazoo MI southwest to near KSBN and down into Monticello,
IN. Lightning activity has persisted thus far, though expecting
it to wane as we go into the morning hours. Expect we`ll see at
least a rumble at KFWA as the approximate TOA is 8-10z, exiting
by around 12z. Otherwise, the MVFR/IFR ceilings in the wake of
the cold front will prevail through mid afternoon before
returning to VFR again. Light showers or drizzle are possible at
KSBN-probably between 12-16z associated with wrap around
moisture from the passing surface low over central Lake MI.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Steinwedel
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...MCD