454
FXUS63 KIWX 190431
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1231 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and stagnant pattern to persist into at least the
  start of the weekend.

- Confidence in needed rainfall chances next week remains low,
  with greatest potential possibly arriving Tue/Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Advection of moisture from the east overnight resulted in rather
extensive area of fog early this morning as far west as the IN 15/US
131 corridor. Some concerns a similar setup could occur tonight, but
confidence in widespread/dense nature is low. Have added patchy
mention in eastern areas late tonight into early Thursday for now.

Sheared out wave attempts to push a front into NW areas Friday, but
decreasing forcing and shallow nature of limited moisture likely
limits these areas to at most a few sprinkles. Blend expanded pops
east and have cut them back significantly. Upper level ridge grabs
hold Fri night with models continuing to struggle on how fast it
breaks down in response to a stronger wave edging east across the
Plains over the weekend. Quality of moisture return and progress of
the trough will be key to determining if we have better chances
for rainfall towards mid week. In coordination with western
offices, lowered dewpoints Saturday as decent mixing should
continue given the dry mid levels and strong heating. Model
blend also continues to be riddled with likely overdone pops
Sun-Mon with slightly higher (but still low overall) confidence
on at least some rainfall to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The set up tonight is similar to last night with the potential
for dense fog formation late tonight as lower 60 dew points were
over northeast Indiana with slightly higher moisture amounts
upstream in the synoptic east flow from the Atlantic with some
enhancement (extra moisture) from Lake Erie. The hourly HRRR
lagged some with the fog development last night, but appears to
be on track in at least the right area with rapid dense fog
development over northwest Ohio spreading into northeast Indiana
including the FWA terminal. The 24 hour temp/dew pt changes
showed the FWA spread 5 degrees smaller this past hour then last
night at this time. Also, dense fog had already formed in the
marine moisture rich air at the Toledo Suburban Airport (KDUH).
Updated the FWA TAF with categorical dense fog before daybreak.
The fog will mix out mid to late morning rendering light east
winds..


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper