Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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990 FXUS63 KIWX 142318 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 718 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through Sunday. - A prolonged heat wave will bring impacts to sensitive individuals beginning Monday and persisting through much of the work week. - While widespread heavy rain or severe weather is not expected, a slight chance of shower and thunderstorm chances will exist each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 In the wake of yesterday`s active weather, today and Saturday will be warm (but not hot per say) and dry. Strong ridging begins to build over the Appalacians during the weekend and by Father`s Day, temperatures will soar into the low 90s for much of the area. With PWATs still below 1 inch, we can expect rain free conditions. However, be mindful of the heat you have outdoor plans. The hottest day of the week is likely to be Monday. There is high confidence in afternoon temperatures topping out into the upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s making it feel about 5 degrees warmer than that. Closer to the ridge, northwest Ohio will have the greatest chance to meet or exceed 100 for an ambient air temperature as suggested by probabilistic model guidance. These hot temperatures will continue through at least next weekend. However, the greatest combination of hot daytime highs and warm overnight lows (in the 70s) will be from Monday through Thursday. Individuals sensitive to heat should make preparations or reschedule plans to a cooler part of the day. One caveat to this prolonged heat wave is a rather messy disagreement on afternoon rain chances and cloud cover next week. Ensembles agree it precipitable water inching back above 1.5in by Monday thanks to Gulf return flow, with the NBM indicating enough afternoon surface based instability to support convection. Model soundings, particularly GFS, don`t look terrible either. A large deciding factor will be how far westward that ridge stays over the area, impeding the area with subsidence aloft. Believe national blended guidance is a touch on the low side, likely due to a slightly drier concensus by ENS ECMWF, but also understand that a lack of spatial/temporal confidence doesn`t justify much of a deviation from the output at this point. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 718 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Building mid/upper level ridge and very dry low levels will ensure VFR conditions through the period. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will also keep winds light. Increasing high clouds anticipated Saturday afternoon as a shortwave lifts into the Upper Midwest but ceilings will remain well above 5 kft. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Norman AVIATION...AGD