836
FXUS63 KIWX 151607
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1207 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and primarily dry conditions will persist this week.

- Very low humidity values are expected this afternoon and Monday
afternoon. Care should be taken with any fires.

- There is a low chance of rain Wednesday, mainly east of Interstate
69.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Latest IR and water vapor satellite imagery shows the remnant
circulation of Francine and associated moisture plume increasingly
stretched to the southwest and west of our area. Exceptionally
dry/stable/subsident airmass still noted in our area per KILN and
KDTX upper air soundings. Even clouds are remaining generally west
of our area and expect this to continue through Mon. Slight uptick
in surface dewpoints noted yesterday will be replaced by drier air
steadily advecting back into our area. This is especially true for
Monday when dewpoints likely drop into the 40s. This raises some
fire wx concerns given afternoon RH values below 30 percent and
recent lack of rainfall. However, wind gusts will remain below 15
kts which is well below red flag criteria and 10-hour fuels remain
relatively moist. Highs today and Monday will remain very similar to
previous days with generally upper 80s.

Forecast confidence remains low for the middle of the week
concerning the northwest extent of tropical system expected to
develop off the Carolina coast in the next 2 days. Several
deterministic models (most notably the GFS) suggest a stronger
western CONUS upper low will help pull the remnant circulation and
associated theta-e plume far enough northwest to support SCT showers
in our CWA. Latest NBM finally introducing some low chance PoP`s for
Wed. If model trends continue we may need to increase those PoP`s
considerably but still enough spread to hold with low chances for
now. Any rain will be light however and unlikely to have any
meaningful impact on drought conditions. Temps will drop slightly
during this period given increased cloud cover and slightly cooler
profiles. Still anticipate primarily low/mid 80s though.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A very dry and stable airmass will hold firm through the TAF
cycle with VFR conditions and little in the way of cloud cover.
Winds will generally remain out of the east-southeast at or
below 10 knots.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel