Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
904 FXUS63 KIWX 140953 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 553 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry conditions are expected into Sunday, with decreasing clouds this morning giving way to mostly clear skies this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s near Lake Michigan, and the low to mid 80s elsewhere. On Sunday, high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. - Hot and humid conditions are expected through the work week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and 90s. Monday into Wednesday will be particularly hot, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will be around 100 degrees. - There are low chances for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday and Wednesday, then during the day Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Expect decreasing clouds this morning into the afternoon as the system that brought our severe weather yesterday moves out of the area. As of this writing, all precipitation was south of the forecast area. Surface high pressure and a strengthening upper level ridge take hold beyond that, keeping our CWA mostly dry through at least the weekend. Some patchy fog/mist has developed in the clearing behind the system, mainly in Michigan where visibilities are mostly 1-3SM but there are a couple spots less than 1SM. Will handle with an SPS if it develops further, but expect it to be fairly limited-especially as we get to sunrise. Highs will be in the upper 70s near Lake Michigan, and the low to mid 80s elsewhere. The only exception would be Sunday when the surface high/upper level ridge sinks to our southeast and leave us on the periphery...thus susceptible to incoming shortwaves within the somewhat zonal flow aloft. On Sunday, high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s and low 90s ahead of a weak shortwave. The ECMWF has a stronger ridge, thus keeps the shortwave and any associated precipitation chances north of our CWA...but the GFS has the zonal flow skirting our northern counties and thus chances for precipitation as we get strengthening south-southwest flow and some weaker WAA. Kept pops out of the forecast for now given low confidence, but if they do materialize closer to the GFS then I would expect slightly more cloud cover, a 20-30% chance for showers and storms, and slightly cooler temps. Right now, have the highs in the afternoon rising into the mid-upper 80s and low 90s (warmest far southwest near White County, IN). Monday into Wednesday will be the real steamer, as the monstrous high pressure center over the NE CONUS builds and moisture is pulled northward off the gulf, and 850mb temps of 20-23C funnel into our area. With daily moisture/instability expect we`ll see diurnally driven showers and storms...albeit isolated in the absence of any significant forcing. Have around 20 percent chance Tue/Wed afternoon. Otherwise, high temperatures rise well into the mid to upper 90s, with some locations nearing 100 degrees (NW Ohio). With dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s and low 70s we could see heat indices from 95 to 105! If the GFS is right, the upper level ridge/high pressure centers just slightly east from the ECMWF-which will lead to better daily precipitation chances and increased cloud cover as our CWA may not be as well underneath the subsidence. Leaned towards the drier conditions for now, with additional chances for precipitation focused on Friday when the GFS suggests the ridge moves into the Atlantic (ECMWF suggest not so much, so didn`t go beyond around 30 percent chance). If the GFS is right, temps "cool" somewhat towards the end of the week-moreso than what I have in the forecast for now (Thu/Fri Highs in the low-mid 90s, heat indices around 95-100). && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 548 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Some patchy fog north of SBN, there is an outside chance some light fog could encroach upon the terminal, otherwise VFR will prevail. With an upper level ridge building over the area, skies will tend to remain clear to partly cloudy with winds around 10 knots or less. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...Skipper