Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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266 FXUS63 KIWX 270815 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 415 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers and thunderstorms may impact activities today through Wednesday. - Hazardous swimming conditions for Lake Michigan beaches in La Porte County in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan today through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Cold front currently sitting northeast to southwest orientated over the CWA and sitting roughly just east of Three Rivers, MI down to just east of Peru, IN. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have accompanied the front as it moves eastward with just a few stronger cells from time to time. Drier air beginning to move in from the west in the wake of the frontal boundary. These showers and storms will continue to move eastward out of the area through around 7AM EDT and will get a small break from precipitation across the area for the first part of the day today. However, with a trough sitting over Ontario, Canada and the Great Lakes region a few shortwave disturbances will ripple through the main flow over the next couple of days keeping clouds around and bringing periods of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Just enough to be annoying. Highs today will be cooler with temperatures in the 60s over the northern parts of the CWA and areas near Lake Michigan with low 70s elsewhere. The first of the disturbances will move through the area this evening/tonight bringing showers/thunderstorms and some gusty winds. Gusts up to 25 mph this evening. On Tuesday, a few lingering showers will be possible through the day until the afternoon when another disturbance moves through bringing better chances of showers/thunderstorms and breezy conditions into Wednesday evening. Highs on Tuesday will be just a tad warmer with areas close to the lake only in the upper 60s and the rest of the area in the lower 70s. High amplitude ridging over the central CONUS will begin to move eastward into the area by late Wednesday and will allow for skies to begin clearing out and bring a return to dry weather. High temperatures will remain a bit cooler than normal levels, which for South Bend is 73 degrees and 75 degrees for Fort Wayne, through Thursday. Morning lows on Thursday and Friday will get down into the lower to mid 40s with good radiational cooling with mostly clear skies due to the ridging. Warming trend late week with Friday highs returning to above normal levels in the mid 70s for most locations and Saturday warmer yet with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The next chance of showers/thunderstorms returns by Saturday afternoon with a weak trough pushing into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions at the moment will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR over the next few hours, behind the cold front at KSBN (lower ceilings upstream) and at KFWA tonight along/behind the cold front. Light rain over KFWA atm associated with a convective complex to our southeast will gradually taper off for a brief period before a line of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front moves in. Right now the line of storms extends from Kalamazoo MI southwest to near KSBN and down into Monticello, IN. Lightning activity has persisted thus far, though expecting it to wane as we go into the morning hours. Expect we`ll see at least a rumble at KFWA as the approximate TOA is 8-10z, exiting by around 12z. Otherwise, the MVFR/IFR ceilings in the wake of the cold front will prevail through mid afternoon before returning to VFR again. Light showers or drizzle are possible at KSBN-probably between 12-16z associated with wrap around moisture from the passing surface low over central Lake MI. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043. && $$ UPDATE...Steinwedel DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...MCD