784
FXUS64 KJAN 171507 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1007 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The forecast remains on track today with our early morning fog
burning off throughout the CWA and showers expected to develop
across the southern half of the forecast area today. The primary
driving mechanism for the weather today has transitioned from
Francine remnants to the interaction between a continental ridge and
a deep retrograding low centered over the eastern parts of the
Carolinas. This pattern has created easterly flow in SFC-700mb level
which will dry out the northern half of the CWA, inhibiting our rain
chances in those areas. Conversely, the offshore stationary boundary
to our south will allow for a moderate amount of isentropic lift,
coupled with high amounts of surface level moisture from previous
rainfall totals, will provide enough of the necessary ingredients
for light showers south of I-20 today. Nothing to get too excited
about though as projected totals for today are not expected to
exceed 0.10 inches.

High relative humidity values and moderate cloud coverage are
contributing to our smaller diurnal temperature swings, leading to
cooler highs in the mid 80s F and seasonable lows in the mid 60s F.
Winds are not expected to be particularly notable with generally
calm easterly conditions persisting throughout today./OAJ/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Today and Tonight...

Overall the forecast for the short term period remains on track
with no major adjustment made. HREF model guidance is starting to
pick up on some early morning fog potential mainly across the
Golden Triangle and southwest portions of the area. Early morning
hi-res guidance continues to show a stalled frontal boundary
along the Gulf Coast. This combined with the presence of leftover
tropical moisture will allow for afternoon/early evening scattered
showers and storms generally for areas along and south of I-20.
Forecast confidence is much higher today given that the latest
GFS/NAM continues to hold onto rain chances through late Tuesday
afternoon. The presence of cloud cover combined with scattered
storms will help keep afternoon highs in the upper 80s across our
CWA. Later this evening, rain chances will begin to diminish
leading to quiet conditions across our forecast area with
overnight lows dropping into the mid 60s. With that being said,
continued saturated soil conditions along with stable overnight
conditions will help heighten widespread fog development heading
into the overnight period. Conditions will continued to be
evaluated for any potential dense fog advisories as we get closer
to early Wednesday morning. /CR/

Wednesday through Monday: With the exception of Wednesday afternoon
where there will be low chances of afternoon showers in our south,
dry weather is expected through Monday. Our normal lows run in the
lower 60s while our normal highs run in the mid 80s. Much of the
forecast period will see above normal morning lows and afternoon
highs.

Come Wednesday morning our CWA will still be on the back side of an
upper level trough with a weak center of high pressure to our north.
A stalled frontal boundary will be just to the south of our
southeast most zones. The surface high will remain in place but the
upper level trough will shift east through the day with shortwave
ridging aloft moving over our CWA. Model consensus develops a few
showers during the heat of the day and spreads the activity into our
southern zones. This convection is expected to dissipate by early
evening. With the shortwave ridge axis and the surface ridge across
our CWA Thursday, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer
and convection will be inhibited. The ridging surface and aloft will
change its orientation across our region but remain dominant through
Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A mixture of MVFR/IFR and LIFR ceilings is occurring across all TAF
sites to start off the TAF period. Ceilings will begin to improve to
MVFR status starting a little after 14Z Tuesday as the cloud
conditions start to improve. Scattered showers along with a few
isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for areas along and
south of the I-20 corridor starting around 15Z Tuesday. MVFR
conditions will continue through 20Z Tuesday before improving to VFR
status by 21Z Tuesday. Weather conditions will remain quiet through
the evening. Widespread patchy fog will start to occur across
central Mississippi staring around 05Z Wednesday causing all TAF
sites to drop to a mixture of MVFR/IFR and LIFR ceilings. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  68  88  66 /  20  20  10   0
Meridian      86  64  89  64 /  10  10  10   0
Vicksburg     85  68  88  66 /  20  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   86  70  90  69 /  40  30  20   0
Natchez       85  69  88  68 /  30  20  10   0
Greenville    85  64  86  63 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     88  65  88  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/22/CR