561
FXUS64 KJAN 210517 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

No adjustments have been made to the forecast for this evening.
Quiet conditions are expected to occur across the ArkLaMiss region
for the next several hours as sounding analysis from this evening
indicate subtle capping due to subsidence and drier air aloft around
850 mb. Because of this, cloud cover is forecasted to slightly
increase across N/NE portions of the CWA for a few hours before
dissipating around midnight. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s
with areas east of I-55 dipping into the upper 60s. Updates are out.
/CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Tonight through next Friday...

Tonight through Monday: Quiet and dry conditions will persist
through tonight as an H5 ridge centered over Texas with the axis
stretching well into the northeast will continue the northwesterly
flow aloft promoting a drying trend in the mid-levels.
Northwesterly flow aloft will limit return flow from the gulf as
PWs area wide struggle to reach the 1.5in range with a slot of
drier air across the southern portions of the CWA. Overnight temps
will be be slightly warmer with low temperatures than previous
days dropping into the high 60s to right around 70 areawide. The
ridge will weaken overnight into tomorrow as it continues moving
slightly eastward allowing for high pressure to move into the area
both at the surface and aloft. With ridging across the
southeastern states expected to continue into early next week,
this will result in persistent quiet conditions with high
temperatures daily being in the low 90s and low temperatures daily
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday Through next Friday: By Tuesday the ridge looks to break
down with an upper trough flattening out across the southeastern
states. This will allow for energy to move across the Rockies and
lift into the Mid-MS River Valley. As the dominant ridge breaks
down, return flow will increase with better low level moisture
flowing into the area. In addition, there will also be a weak
front looking to drop into the area from the north. With all those
factors in mind, the area will retain low end PoPs (20-30%)
through the end of the forecast period.

It is also worth noting that towards the end of the forecast period
there is increasing uncertainty of a potential tropical
disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that has a 50% chance
of cyclone formation in the next 7 days. However global models
haven`t shown much consensus of the strength or possible
positioning if it were to evolve later next week in the Gulf of
Mexico. As we progress closer in time, we will provide additional
information on any potential tropical concerns. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Winds will be calm overnight, but will become
southeasterly at around 5 knots by late morning. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      94  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     94  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   95  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       93  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    93  70  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     94  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/19