Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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834 FXUS64 KJAN 160010 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 710 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Tonight and Monday...Low pressure is still over the region keeping rain and clouds over the area. The heaviest rains today have been over northeast Mississippi. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this evening as this low continues to hang out over the region. Guidance is still hinting at some fog potential across the southern portions of the area overnight and have added the fog into the forecast overnight. We may have to expand it or possibly issue a Fog Advisory if things pan out. Rain and shower chances still remain elevated on Monday as this low weakens Monday. /MJH/ Monday night through Sunday...With the lingering boundary, rain chances were extended into Tuesday generally south of I-20. Not sure how fast clouds will thin out on Tuesday, so thinking it will be a few degrees cooler than models show, but not significant enough to make any changes. The latest NAM/GFS hold on to the boundary into Wednesday afternoon/Thursday. Although the boundary will likely be along the coast a few showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out along the hwy 84 corridor. Not confident, so will leave the 10 percent in the forecast, basically going with guidance pops and temps through the forecast period. The upper wave of what will be left of Francine by Tuesday should be much weaker and headed south out of the area. The stalled front will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. Upper level support didn`t look great, but convergence along the boundary and some general heating may support some thunderstorms in the afternoon. High pressure was expected to squeeze in between disturbances around Thursday and help to push everything out. The end of the week going into the weekend looks dry. Although winds around the nearby circulations on all levels were north/northeast, the airmass building in from Mexico should bring some hot and dry air into the region. Guidance has above normal high temperatures, where the GFS 850mb model temps stay around 16-18 degree. /07/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A mixed bag of VFR to MVFR ceilings/stratus are ongoing, due to light RA at central to eastern TAF sites or in the VC. This general persistence pattern will give way to another night of lowered ceilings dropping quickly to IFR flight categories/stratus around 16/04-07Z Monday. There are some indications of some LIFR ceilings, at GLH, PIB, HBG & HEZ, with some patchy fog/BR at most sites overnight. Vsby in northwest, central to southwestern TAF sites from GLH to HKS/JAN, PIB/HBG & HEZ, could fall to IFR to LIFR from patchy to areas of dense fog overnight. Additional light RA development is likely for the northeastern most TAF sites through daybreak Monday, outside of HKS/JAN, PIB/HBG & HEZ. The earliest onset will be at GWO, GTR & MEI, from 16/09-16Z & persisting into the aftn & spreading west-southwest. Flight restrictions from dense fog & low stratus will improve to MVFR by 16/15-17Z Monday & persist through the end of the TAF period. RA will decrease in coverage in north-central to northeast sites into Monday aftn. Light easterly winds will persist through Monday aftn, sustained up to 10mph & brief gusts up to 20mph. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 82 68 84 / 30 70 20 20 Meridian 68 81 65 84 / 60 70 20 20 Vicksburg 69 83 68 84 / 10 60 10 10 Hattiesburg 71 85 69 86 / 30 70 20 30 Natchez 67 84 68 84 / 0 50 10 20 Greenville 69 79 66 84 / 60 60 10 0 Greenwood 69 80 66 86 / 60 60 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ MJH/07/DC