264
FXUS64 KJAN 260953
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
453 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 451 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Today and Tonight: Warm and breezy today followed by a chance of
severe storms across the northern half of the CWA tonight. Early
morning surface analysis had a <1000mb low centered over the Plains
and a >1014mb high ridging west across the northern Gulf. The
surface ridge will hang tough while the surface low tracks northeast
through tonight. The pressure gradient between the two features will
result in a gusty south wind today that will lead to warmer than
normal temperatures again and help maintain low level moisture
across our CWA. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed
the circulation around a 591dam ridge across old Mexico and over the
central Gulf. In addition several shortwaves were noted across the
western and central CONUS that will help support the surface low
tracking to the northeast through tonight. The surface low will drop
a trailing cold front into our northwest most zones by sunrise
Monday. Vigorous convection is expected to fire along and ahead of
the approaching cold front. This will bring the threat of severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts up to 70mph and hail up to
golf ball size to our CWA generally along and north of Highway 82.
Isolated severe storms will be possible south of Highway 82 to the
Interstate 20 corridor. Today will be dry but rain chances will
increase during the evening from the north. The severe storm
potential looks to begin in the northwest by 9pm and continue south
to I-20 before waining toward sunrise. /22/

Memorial Day through the weekend...

Early morning model guidance continues to highlight a 996 mb sfc low
propagating northeast towards the Great Lakes Region. At the same
time, a shortwave trough, located on the southern peripheral of the
sfc low will help push a frontal boundary across our forecast area.
Rain chances will remain low through Memorial Day morning with a few
lingering showers and storms possible across the Pine Belt. Weather
conditions will remain generally quiet during this timeframe as skies
beginning to clear later in the day, with afternoon highs peaking
into the low 90s across our forecast area. Later in the
afternoon/evening, the boundary will shift south towards the Hwy 84
corridor as moisture content continues to build from the Gulf. This,
combined with sufficient daytime heating will assist in the
development of strong to severe thunderstorms across the Lower
Mississippi. Local environmental parameters indicate a favorable
environment for severe storms, with SBCAPE up 3000 J/kg, steep mid-
level lapse rates, and PWATs up to 1.70 in. Because of this a few
modifications were made to the severe HWO graphics for Memorial Day
as forecast confidence as start to increase slightly. The Marginal
Risk (1 out of 5) remains the same. A Slight Risk (2 out of 5) has
been introduced and covers most of our CWA. Damaging winds up to 70
mph and hail up to golf ball size will be the primary hazards with
these storms. Confidence still remains low in regards to the exact
timing of these storms. We will continue to closely monitor trends
and will provide updates to the timing graphic as we get closer to
Memorial Day. In addition to the severe potential for Memorial Day
afternoon/evening, heat indices could reach 105-110 degrees
especially for areas south of the I-20 corridor which will put many
residents under the threat of dangerous heat stress. A heat stress
graphic will likely be introduced heading into Memorial Day. Heat
trends will continued to be monitored closely.

Come Tuesday, global guidance show the cold front pushing further
south towards the Gulf Coast. This will allow for a 1022 mb to build
into the area from the northwest as the trough axis propagates east
towards the Carolinas and the sfc low continues to shift northeast
across the Upper East Coast and into southern Canada. By Wednesday,
dry and cool conditions will occur across the southeast US as
northwest flow aloft will help limit heating from the Gulf. Isolated
showers and storms will make a brief return to the area on Thursday
and Friday with quiet conditions through the weekend. Ridging aloft
will help keep weather conditions quiet heading into the next work
week. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions wl prevail until after 10Z when MVFR/IFR cigs wl
develop cntrl and south and prevail until after 15Z before
improving to VFR. A gusty south wind of 20-24kts wl develop by 15Z
and continue through the aftn before subsiding after 00Z Mon. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  73  92  68 /   0  40  20  10
Meridian      93  72  93  67 /   0  30  30  10
Vicksburg     93  73  93  69 /  10  40  10  10
Hattiesburg   93  74  94  71 /   0  20  30  10
Natchez       92  73  93  69 /   0  30  10  10
Greenville    92  73  93  69 /  10  50  10  10
Greenwood     92  73  91  67 /  10  60  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/CR/22