964
FXUS64 KJAN 281603 CCA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1059 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A dry airmass (e.g., JAN 12z RAOB precipitable water 0.87") is in
place over most of the forecast area this morning, but there is a
sharp moisture/instability gradient over southwest portions of
the area in closer proximity to the NW-SE oriented frontal
boundary to our southwest. A large convective system over the
east TX/wrn LA has defied much of the CAM guidance thus far with
it`s eastward extent and intensity, but it will struggle to make
it much farther east into what is a harsh environment for deep
convection. For now have had to increase rain chances some over
western areas based on trends, and will maintain the current small
marginal severe risk area in NE LA/SW MS. Will continue to assess
the need for the severe graphic as we the convective system gets
closer early this afternoon, and may be able to drop it at that
time. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a stalled
front from just south of our southeast most zones extending west
northwest back into central Texas. North of this boundary a >1017mb
ridge was northwest to southeast across our CWA. A relatively dry
airmass with PWATs less than an inch and a quarter per the 00Z Tue
JAN sounding resided over our CWA and the surface ridge is expected
to help limit the return of low level moisture today. Early morning
satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our region at the base of a
broad upper level trough resulting in northwest flow aloft across
our CWA. Disturbances within the northwest flow will combine with
daytime heating and the stalled boundary to develop vigorous
convection to our west. By late afternoon some of this convection
may spread into our western most zones and produce a threat of
damaging wind gusts and hail to quarter size. This threat is
expected to last into the evening but wain with the loss of daytime
heating. The eastern half of our CWA will remain dry. Late this
evening there will likely be a lull in convection but model
consensus suggests rain chances will return to our western most
zones prior to sunrise. This activity is not expected to be severe.
Temperatures will top out warmer than normal again today and mainly
in the lower 90s. /22/

Wednesday through next Tuesday...

By Wednesday a mid-level shortwave will bring the chance for
isolated to scattered storms across the western and central portions
of the forecast area. This system seems to be short lived with QPF
return less than 1/4". Luckily, this shortwave is expected to bring
in a cooler airmass, which will allow for highs in the lower to
upper 80s and lows in the 60s through the weekend.

The remainder of the week look to have isolated to scattered chances
of showers in storms, primarily in the west, due to mainly weak low-
level shortwaves. The next best chance for precipitation looks to be
on Friday through the weekend as a stronger shortwave moves across
the southeast region, which will generate scattered showers and
storms areawide. By Sunday into Tuesday, temperatures will begin
warming up again and isolated diurnal showers and storms are
expected in the afternoon hours. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. Isold SHRA/TSRA may come in vcty of HEZ this aftn/evng.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  68  87  67 /  10  10  30  20
Meridian      92  66  89  66 /   0  10  20  20
Vicksburg     89  69  85  67 /  20  20  30  20
Hattiesburg   93  69  90  68 /   0  10  20  10
Natchez       88  69  86  67 /  40  30  30  20
Greenville    90  70  84  68 /  10  20  40  20
Greenwood     90  68  85  66 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/AJ/EC