485
FXUS64 KJAN 220954 CCA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
453 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 453 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Today through tonight: Today mark`s the beginning of a more active
convective weather pattern for western and northern portions of
the ArkLaMiss region. Increasing westerlies will suppress the
subtropical ridge responsible for the recent warm and dry
conditions, and greater storm coverage is expected in association
with the frontal boundary located to our northwest. Strong deep
layer shear and instability will favor the potential for
organized strong to severe storms, and expect associated cold
pools should should have some momentum as they accelerate toward
the ArkLaMiss later this afternoon and evening. With this said,
the threat for severe weather now extends deeper into the forecast
area for mainly this afternoon/evening, and this is reflected in
the HWO graphic.

For the remainder of the forecast area, guidance show significant
capping in the drier anticyclonic flow, and this should correlate
with a big drop off in convective parameters over central/eastern
MS. Any convective systems should diminish quickly later this
evening as they attempt to move farther east, and it should be
noted that a good bit of guidance draw the convective system on a
more southerly trajectory through northeast LA along the
instability gradient. In any case, still expect damaging straight-
line wind and large hail to be the primary threats. /EC/

Thursday into next Wednesday: Early morning global guidance
highlights a 998 mb sfc low developing across the NW CONUS before
shifting eastward towards the Four Corners Region through Thursday
morning. As the sfc low shifts north towards Canada, broad
longwave troughing will continue to dominate the western and
central CONUS. Any disturbances that ripple out of this longwave
trough will provide the support for diurnal activity to organize
and propagate eastward across the forecast area heading into
Thursday evening. Because of this, a few modifications were made
to the severe HWO graphics for Thursday as forecast confidence has
started to increase. The threat for severe storms will continue
across the Delta heading into Thursday. The Slight Risk (2 out of
5) has been introduced for southeast Arkansas into northwest MS.
The Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) has been extended further south in
order to capture areas north of the I-20 corridor with the threat
for damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter sizeannot be ruled
out.

Given the increasing humidity, warm temperatures, and presence of
a nearby frontal boundary, storm chances will continue for the
northern areas. Guidance consensus highlights multiple decent
waves moving across the forecast area as we head into the weekend
which could carry a threat for strong to severe storms. Forecast
confidence at this time remains low in regards to timing. We will
continue to monitor trends and will provide updates as we get
closer to the weekend and model data becomes available. Heading
into the next work week, a large scale trough will begin to set up
across the eastern CONUS. This trough will help push a cool front
and dry air into our CWA with rain chances starting to decrease
heading into Wednesday.

Before the front arrives, Sunday and Monday look to be the
hottest days in the extended period with afternoon highs in the
low 90s. There is a possibility that heat indices could reach 105-
110 degrees, which will put many residents under the threat of
dangerous heat stress. If widespread rain chances remains low for
Sunday and Monday, a heat stress graphic would likely be
introduced in the near future. Heat trends will continued to be
monitored as we get closer to Sunday. /CR/

.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A persistent southerly flow pattern will bring another round
IFR/LIFR category stratus/fog to the PIB/HBG area during the early
morning hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and southerly
surface wind to prevail for the most part. There may be an
increased threat for TSRA in the GLH/GWO area by this afternoon
and into the evening, but confidence is a bit too low to include
in the TAFs. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  70  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
Meridian      90  68  90  70 /   0   0  10  10
Vicksburg     90  71  90  71 /  20  30  10  10
Hattiesburg   90  68  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       88  70  90  71 /  20  20  10   0
Greenville    89  71  87  72 /  40  50  30  30
Greenwood     90  70  88  71 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/CR/EC