612
FXUS64 KJAN 272024
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
324 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Through Tuesday: For the late afternoon to early evening, the
main concerns will be heat stress, especially across southern
portions of the area, and also for a continued marginal risk south
of the Highway 84 corridor. As it stands, storms have yet to
redevelop, but most recent visible imagery show the potential for
a seabreeze front to interact the lingering convective outflow
boundary over se MS, and this may offer the greatest potential for
isolate storms, mainly in the Pine Belt region. In addition, the
boundary layer remains quite oppressive and will maintain current
heat danger messaging, including a heat advisory that was issued
earlier for the Natchez area. During the overnight, expect fair
weather conditions with slightly cooler low temperatures.

For Tuesday, a nearly stationary frontal boundary skirting the
southwest portion of the forecast area will potential support
storm development late in the day. Some guidance indicate that a
convective system will move across the ArkLaTex region and track
southeast along the boundary, potentially impacting far southwest
portions of the area. Given the storm organization and cold pool
potential, have included a marginal risk for severe weather for
far southwest portions and this in included now in the HWO
graphics. Otherwise, not much in the way of significant weather
impacts are expected elsewhere, but temperatures will remain on
the hot side. /EC/

Tuesday night through the weekend: Through the long term isolated
shower and thunderstorm chances will be present almost everyday
of the period. The pattern will be one dominated by upper level
troughing across the area keeping a boundary across our
west/southwest and heavily contributing to the lingering precip
chances. As rounds of shortwave energy interact with the boundary
we can expect to see mostly sub-severe showers and storms mainly
across our western periphery. Over the course of the period we can
expect to see a continuation of the H5 ridge building over the
Southern Plains. This will lead to increased northwesterly flow,
with a slightly drier and cooler airmass moving in bringing high
temperatures in the low to high 80s by midweek. Come Saturday a
stronger shortwave moves through the area bringing increased
chances for showers and storms areawide. Sunday through Monday
temperatures and moisture will begin to increase as low-level flow
increases bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and
storms across the area. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions and mostly light west to northwest surface wind
will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated storms could
develop in the HEZ to HBG corridor late this aftn near a lingering
surface boundary and this is reflected in the TAFs. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  91  68  84 /   0  10  10  30
Meridian      66  93  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
Vicksburg     69  93  68  84 /  10  10  10  30
Hattiesburg   70  95  68  89 /  10  10  10  30
Natchez       70  93  68  84 /  10  20  10  30
Greenville    69  91  69  82 /   0  10  10  20
Greenwood     67  91  67  82 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ060.

LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ024-026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/KP/EC