265
FXUS64 KJAN 291812
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
112 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The previously mentioned shortwave trough has been initiating
convective rainfall over the ArkLaTex region to our west, and a
more prominent area of convection over central LA associated with
greater moisture transport may help to enhance convergence over
southwest portions of the forecast area as we go into the early
afternoon. Given the quick increase in deep layer moisture and
fairly steep mid level lapse rates (e.g., 12z KLIX raob with 7.7
deg c/km) combined with peak heating and seasonably strong
mid/upper level flow for multicell storm development, have opted
to maintain the current marginal risk area west of I-55 to account
for a conditional severe risk. The area could be adjusted some
early this afternoon based on radar trends, but for now will
maintain some consistency in our messaging. Otherwise, showers
rooted above the boundary layer that developed earlier along the
I-20 corridor have dissipated some with stronger mixing and moved
off to the east. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Today and tonight...A shortwave trough will move across the area
today and this will kick off isolated to scattered storms this
afternoon and evening. With lapse rates of around 6.0 to 6.5 c/km
and decent MU capes, a few of these storms could be strong to
possibly severe mainly for areas west of I-55. A marginal risk is
already being advertised for these areas. Hi-res models suggest
that scattered storms will continue to be possible tonight as
another short wave moves across the area. High temperatures today
will climb to around 90, while overnight lows will fall into the
mid/upper 60s./15/

Thursday through Wednesday...

Isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the duration of the extended period. Early morning global guidance
show a 1024 mb sfc high shifting east across The convective
weather pattern will be unsettled withthe Great Lakes Region.
With this sfc high propagating eastward, active westerlies over
the Southern Plains will begin to extend into our forecast area on
Thursday morning as the sfc boundary remains to our
west/southwest. Heading into Thursday afternoon, some strong
storms will be possible for areas west of the Mississippi River as
a weak-level shortwave interacts with sufficient instability and
a surface boundary. Went ahead and made a few adjustments to the
forecast for Thursday by increasing PoP chances across our CWA
(45-60%). A stronger shortwave will move through the area heading
into Friday/Saturday bringing increased chances for strong to
isolated severe storms across the area. A Marginal Risk (1 out of
5) has been introduced for much of the forecast area. Forecast
confidence regarding the exact timing of this system is low at the
moment, however we should start to have a better understanding of
the timing of this event as confidence start to increase. We will
continue to monitor trends and will provide updates as we get
closer to this event. Rain chances will continue through Wednesday
as temperatures and moisture increase, as low- level flow
increase across the southeast US bringing additional chances for
afternoon showers and storms across the forecast area. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part with the exception
of patchy areas early morning fog possible mainly in the HBG/PIB
area. SHRA/TSRA emphasis will be on the late aftn/early evng time
frame, but confidence is low beyond then concerning when there may
be redevelopment. Surface wind will be light and erratic this
afternoon into tonight, becoming mostly southeast Thursday
morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  67  85  67 /  20  40  50  20
Meridian      91  66  83  66 /  30  30  40  20
Vicksburg     91  69  85  67 /  30  40  50  30
Hattiesburg   93  69  89  68 /  30  20  30  10
Natchez       92  68  86  68 /  50  40  60  20
Greenville    89  69  81  68 /  20  60  50  30
Greenwood     90  67  80  67 /  10  50  50  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/CR/EC