Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
221 FXUS64 KJAN 282348 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 648 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Through Wednesday: Most deep convection is bypassing the forecast area well to the west and south this afternoon as noted in the previous discussion, and have gone ahead and removed the messaging for any severe threat in the Natchez area for the remainder of today. There could be some light rain and perhaps a lightning strike or two that impacts far southern portions of NE LA until early evening, but otherwise most of the area will be rain and storm free as we go through tonight. For Wednesday, we may see great threat for storms, especially over western portions of the area. Most guidance show that a significant mid level perturbation will cross the area in the aftn/evening, and this will likely increase moisture transport and eventual storm development. Mid/upper level flow and lapse rates should be sufficient for a few intense storms to organize, and SPC has included western portions of the area in a marginal risk. Have gone ahead and messaged this in the HWO graphics. If some of the more pronounced guidance verifies, this risk area may be expanded and increased some, but confidence won`t be great until we can actually realize the moisture increase. /EC/ Wednesday night through Tuesday: The long term will be dominated by continuous chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms almost everyday of the period. Active westerlies over the Southern Plains will extend into our forecast area as a surface boundary remains to our west/southwest. As rounds of shortwave energy interact with sufficient instability and a surface boundary, we can expect to see mostly sub-severe storms crossing the area. By Friday and Saturday, a stronger shortwave is expected to move through the area bringing increased chances for showers and storms areawide. Sunday through Tuesday temperatures and moisture will begin to increase as low-level flow increases bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and storms across the area. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR flight categories with light & variable winds, less than 10mph, are expected through the period the next 24 hours. Primary concern for low probs of light SHRA or TSRA will come Wednesday aftn to evening, mainly after 29/20-22Z. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 88 67 85 / 10 40 30 40 Meridian 65 90 66 86 / 0 20 20 30 Vicksburg 69 88 68 84 / 10 40 40 40 Hattiesburg 69 93 69 89 / 0 30 20 30 Natchez 69 88 67 84 / 10 40 30 50 Greenville 69 87 68 82 / 0 40 40 40 Greenwood 67 88 66 82 / 0 40 30 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/KP/DC