852
FXUS64 KJAN 291128
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
628 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Today and tonight...A short wave will move across the area today and
this will kick off isolated to scattered storms this afternoon and
evening. With lapse rates of around 6.0 to 6.5 c/km and decent MU
capes, a few of these storms could be strong to possible severe
mainly for areas west of I-55. A marginal risk is already being
advertised for these areas. Hi-res models suggest that scattered
storms will continue to be possible tonight as another short wave
moves across the area. High temperatures today will climb to around
90, while overnight lows will fall into the mid/upper 60s./15/

Thursday through Wednesday...

Isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the duration of the extended period. Early morning global guidance
show a 1024 mb sfc high shifting east across the Great Lakes Region.
With this sfc high propagating eastward, active westerlies over the
Southern Plains will begin to extend into our forecast area on
Thursday morning as the sfc boundary remains to our west/southwest.
Heading into Thursday afternoon, some strong storms will be possible
for areas west of the Mississippi River as a weak-level shortwave
interacts with sufficient instability and a surface boundary. Went
ahead and made a few adjustments to the forecast for Thursday by
increasing PoP chances across our CWA (45-60%). A stronger shortwave
will move through the area heading into Friday/Saturday bringing
increased chances for strong to isolated severe storms across the
area. A Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) has been introduced for much of
the forecast area. Forecast confidence regarding the exact timing of
this system is low at the moment, however we should start to have a
better understanding of the timing of this event as confidence start
to increase. We will continue to monitor trends and will provide
updates as we get closer to this event. Rain chances will continue
through Wednesday as temperatures and moisture increase, as low-
level flow increase across the southeast US bringing additional
chances for afternoon showers and storms across the forecast area.
/CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

All TAF sites are VFR this morning with the exception of KGLH
where fog has developed and is bringing IFR/LIFR visibilities.
Expect conditions to improve after 13-14Z and become VFR by 15Z.
All remaining sites should remain VFR through the period outside
of any thundestorm activity./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  67  85  67 /  20  40  50  30
Meridian      91  66  83  66 /  20  30  40  30
Vicksburg     91  69  85  67 /  30  40  50  40
Hattiesburg   93  69  89  68 /  20  20  30  30
Natchez       92  68  86  68 /  30  40  60  30
Greenville    89  69  81  68 /  20  60  50  40
Greenwood     90  67  80  67 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15