915
FXUS64 KJAN 181407 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
907 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The weather today looks to be mild and unremarkable as
heights/pressures have risen slightly across the area, and
continue to build in from the north. Our early morning fog has
burned off today and the aforementioned ridge building in will
suppress any chance for significant cloud coverage developing
today, allowing for nonexistent rain chances across the region
today.

Heat indices looks to break 90F across central portions of the CWA,
with the majority of sites maintaining heat index in the upper 80s
F. Afternoon relative humidity values will range from 70% in the
southeast to 50% in the northeast, providing some much needed relief
from the stagger humidity we`ve had the past few days. Altogether
the expectation is a climatologically sensible forecast./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Today and Tonight: Latest surface observations showed patchy fog
across the central portions of our CWA. This fog may become dense
toward sunrise but is expected to remain patchy at best and expand
over the southern portions of the CWA. A Dense Fog Advisory is not
anticipated. Patchy fog will be possible again tonight but the
probabilities of becoming dense will be much lower.

Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a closed low spinning over the Carolinas. This
closed low will continue to lift east northeast while weakening
through tonight. This will result in northwest flow aloft continuing
across our CWA. Latest surface analysis had a weak surface ridge
nosing into our CWA from the northeast while a stalled frontal
boundary continued to meander along the Gulf coast south of our CWA.
This surface ridge will change very little through tonight and
essentially keep the Gulf closed. Previous guidance had low chances
of rain this afternoon across our southern most zones. Latest
guidance has come in drier for our CWA and keeps the measurable
precipitation south of our southern most zones. Temperatures will
top out slightly warmer this afternoon and bottom out slightly
warmer than normal Thursday morning. /22/

Thursday through next Tuesday...High pressure, both aloft and at the
surface, will reside across the forecast area through the majority
of the forecast period.  This will result in quiet weather across
the region through at least the upcoming weekend and start of next
week.  Continued humid conditions will persist with afternoon highs
and overnight lows at to just above normal for this time of year. As
we move into the middle of next week, some isolated rain chances
return to mainly northern portions of the forecast area as a trough
tries to push a frontal boundary into the region. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys with ocsnl LIFR cigs have developed over
the cntrl and srn TAF sites. These reduced flight conditions wl be
psbl until after 14Z when conditions wl improve to VFR. By 15Z
VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the end of
the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  67  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      91  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     90  68  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   91  70  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       89  70  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    88  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     89  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/19/22