926
FXUS64 KJAN 070548 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today and tomorrow: A front is moving through the region this
evening and will help usher in a slightly drier airmass into the
ArkLaMiss. This will mark the end of the current wet pattern we
had this week. As the front moves through this evening there is
only a small chance of a shower across southeast Mississippi but
those rain chances should be fairly small and should end later
this evening. Expect warm and sunny conditions for Friday and
Saturday as temperatures remain in the lower 90s through Saturday.
/MJH/

Friday night through next Thursday...

By Friday night into the weekend, deep layer ridging will strengthen
as a high pressure sits over the Southern Plains. Mid-level ridging
will influence northwesterly flow into the southeast region,
promoting the continuance of a dry, continental airmass over the CWA
through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain in the
lower 90s on Saturday and upper 60s to lower 70s overnight. By
Sunday, the high pressure is expected to migrate eastwards over the
Lower Mississippi Valley, allowing for temperatures to become
maximized. Highs on Sunday will range in the middle 90s for most of
the CWA, while some areas in the Pine Belt potentially reaching the
upper 90s. The main concern will be heat indices, as some areas may
reach up to 105 degrees. As of now, no heat products are being
advertised but we will continue to monitor the potential as
certainty increases. A low pressure system progged to move eastwards
out of the High Plains is expected to bring a weak trough just north
of Mississippi. Increased moisture from this system and efficient
afternoon heating looks to bring a chance for isolated showers and a
strong storm or two along and north of the Hwy 82 corridor on Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, expected hot and dry conditions to prevail.

By Monday into the middle of the week, southerly flow looks to
prevail, which will keep moisture in the lower levels through
midweek. Models guidance continues to have uncertain regarding
precipitation amount and timing through the end of the period. Any
chance of precip looks to be isolated to scattered in nature and the
severe potential seems to be fairly low. Temperatures will be near
normal, with highs in the middle 80s to low 90s and lows in the
middle 60s. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Some shallow BR or FG cannot be ruled out before 12Z, but the
arrival of drier air from the north should limit those chances.
Otherwise, VFR conditions with north winds less than 10 kts should
prevail through the TAF period. /NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  92  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      62  92  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     64  92  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   65  94  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       66  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    65  92  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     64  91  71  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

MJH/AJ/NF