Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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020 FXUS64 KJAN 271747 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1247 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 958 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Have made some adjustments to the near term forecast and messaging based on the latest trends related to convective trends and heat stress. Increased subsidence and drying aloft in the wake of the overnight convection and shortwave trough will suppress any additional storm potential to roughly south of the Highway 84 corridor in spite of the very warm and humid boundary layer conditions. A marginal risk for severe storms continues in that area, and this is a highly conditional threat based on sufficient lift for the development of isolated storms. Having said that, the environment will be quite unstable (e.g., MLCAPE > 3500 j/kg) and favorable for intense updrafts if storms can develop, and deep layer flow would be sufficient for a multicell segment or two capable of producing damaging wind gusts in what will also be a high DCAPE environment. Have also included a mention of dangerous heat across southern portions of the area where heat/wbgt risk support a limited threat in the HWO graphics. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Tonight: Mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions will prevail with lows in the middle to upper 60s. /AJ/ Tuesday through next Monday... The extended period begins with a building ridge extending from southwest Canada to to the Texas Panhandle, while a low pressure system swings across the Mid-West into the Mid-Atlantic/New England regions. At the lower levels, the Lower Mississippi Valley is progged to be wedged just west of the elongated east coast trough, which will enable northwesterly dry flow into the region. This will promote a hot and dry airmass maximizing over the ArkLaMiss region on Tuesday. Highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s, while heat indices climb into the lower to upper 90s. By Wednesday a mid-level shortwave will bring the chance for isolated to scattered storms across the western and central portions of the forecast area. This system seems to be short lived with QPF return less than 1/4". Luckily, this shortwave is expected to bring in a cooler airmass, which will allow for highs in the lower to upper 80s and lows in the 60s through the weekend. The remainder of the week look to have isolated to scattered chances of showers in storms, primarily in the west, due to mainly weak low- level shortwaves. The next best chance for precipitation looks to be on Saturday as a stronger shortwave moves across the southeast region, which will generate scattered showers and storms areawide. By Sunday and Monday, temperatures will begin warming up again and isolated diurnal showers and storms are expected in the afternoon hours. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions and mostly light west to northwest surface wind will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated storms could develop in the HEZ to HBG corridor late this aftn near a lingering surface boundary and this is reflected in the TAFs. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 68 91 68 / 20 0 10 10 Meridian 93 66 93 66 / 60 10 0 0 Vicksburg 94 69 93 68 / 10 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 94 70 95 68 / 50 10 10 10 Natchez 93 70 93 68 / 20 10 20 10 Greenville 91 69 91 69 / 10 0 10 10 Greenwood 91 67 91 67 / 10 0 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ060. LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ024-026. AR...None. && $$ EC/AJ/EC