965
FXUS64 KJAN 150859
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
359 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue into the
  weekend.

- Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected
  along with increasing rain chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Humidity will be on the increase today as the subtropical ridge
axis shifts to the east and low level winds veer to a southerly
direction, but it will remain rain-free as we go into the weekend.
This will change Sunday afternoon when a surge of deeper moisture
from the gulf is forecast by most guidance to arrive. The
increased moisture combined with peak heating should support the
development of at least scattered afternoon showers/storms over
mainly southwest portions of the area.

Going through next week, we`ll see the pattern evolve into an
amplifed western/central CONUS trough to eastern CONUS ridge
longwave pattern. Continued moisture transport will support an
increase in diurnally enhanced shower and thunderstorm chances,
especially over western and northern portions of the area. In
addition to the increasing rain chances, temperatures will be on
the increase with lower 90s common Monday and Tuesday. The above
normal temperatures combined with increased humidity will result
in heat index values in the mid/upper 90s. By Wednesday and
Thursday, a surface frontal boundary may become a more prominent
feature in our region resulting in greater shower/storm coverage
and a slight decrease in high temperatures. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds may end
up shifting to a more southerly component during the daytime but
remain fairly gentle throughout the period. There may even be
gusts near and around the MS Delta after 21Z or so but
probabilities remain subdued enough to not mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  67  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      84  60  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     88  69  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   86  61  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       88  68  85  67 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    89  71  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     87  70  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/OAJ