Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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704
FXUS64 KJAN 132348
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
548 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Tonight: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a nearly stacked low spinning over southeast
Nebraska with a trough axis south through the southern Plains. The
associated cold front was noted over western Arkansas trailing back
across the ArkLaTex. This low pressure system will track east
through Thursday and bring the cold front across our CWA this
evening into early morning. Ahead of the cold front this afternoon
resided a warm moist air mass with PWATs in excess of a inch and
three quarters along with a surge of lower 70F dew points nearly
along and just east of the MS river and as far north as Highway 82.
This anomalous moisture was already fueling numerous coverage of
showers and thunderstorms over our CWA. As the upper level trough
and cold front draw closer this afternoon there will be the
potential for isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds and
brief tornadoes. Although our whole CWA could experience an isolated
severe storm, the most favorable area for tornadoes will be over our
south generally along and south of Highway 84. Considering the
abnormally moist air mass, locally heavy rain of two to three inches
in a short amount of time may accompany the strongest storms. This
will lead to runoff issues and may lead to flash flooding especially
in low lying and urban areas. The potential for severe storms and
flash flooding will continue this evening but end from the west with
the passage of the cold front as it moves across our CWA. The cooler
and drier air in the wake of the cold front will knock morning lows
into the 40s in our northwest and in the 50s elsewhere. Ridging
surface and aloft will build into our CWA from the west Thursday.
Dry weather and cooler temperatures will be the result although
afternoon highs will continue to be above normal. /22/

Thursday night through next Wednesday...

By Thursday evening, an upper low is progged to drive into the
Ohio VAlley/Mid-Atlantic region and eventually eject into the
Atlantic Ocean. In the wake of the trough, a cold frontal boundary
is expected to have cleared the Lower Mississippi Valley. Drier
air is expected to infiltrate the region on Friday, with northerly
flow prevailing over the CWA through Saturday. PWATs are expected
to drop below an inch, allowing for mostly clear skies through
the end of the week. Additionally, temperatures are expected to
become more seasonable, with highs in the middle 60s to low 70s
and overnight lows in the lower to upper 40s through the weekend.

By Saturday night into Sunday, a subtropical high is expected to
build in the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for robust upper ridging over
the eastern CONUS. This is expected to increase temperatures once
again by Monday. Additionally, moisture will begin to increase as
southerly flow is restored across the Lower MS Valley. By next week,
abnormally warm temperatures will infiltrate the region, with highs
in the middle to upper 70s. By Monday night, another upper low
pressure ejecting out Southern Plains will increase rain chances
across the region and isolated to scattered showers will prevail
through the end of the period. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Ceilings and vsbys continue to be chaotic and mostly in the
IFR/MVFR range early this evening as considerable SHRA/VCTS
continue to move across the area well ahead of a surface cold
front. Drier air moving in aloft is surging in and will bring an
end to the precip from west to east as we go through the early/mid
evening. After a brief period of low stratus/fog potential
following rainfall, the surface front will push through and the
mixing should end any fog potential while clearing out skies. For
Thursday, expect VFR conditions with northwest surface wind at all
sites. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  68  46  68 /  60   0   0   0
Meridian      57  70  44  67 / 100   0   0   0
Vicksburg     51  69  44  68 /  20   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   60  74  46  70 /  80   0   0   0
Natchez       52  68  45  69 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    49  65  41  65 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     50  67  43  67 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/KP/EC