Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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704 FXUS64 KJAN 132348 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 548 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Tonight: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a nearly stacked low spinning over southeast Nebraska with a trough axis south through the southern Plains. The associated cold front was noted over western Arkansas trailing back across the ArkLaTex. This low pressure system will track east through Thursday and bring the cold front across our CWA this evening into early morning. Ahead of the cold front this afternoon resided a warm moist air mass with PWATs in excess of a inch and three quarters along with a surge of lower 70F dew points nearly along and just east of the MS river and as far north as Highway 82. This anomalous moisture was already fueling numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms over our CWA. As the upper level trough and cold front draw closer this afternoon there will be the potential for isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds and brief tornadoes. Although our whole CWA could experience an isolated severe storm, the most favorable area for tornadoes will be over our south generally along and south of Highway 84. Considering the abnormally moist air mass, locally heavy rain of two to three inches in a short amount of time may accompany the strongest storms. This will lead to runoff issues and may lead to flash flooding especially in low lying and urban areas. The potential for severe storms and flash flooding will continue this evening but end from the west with the passage of the cold front as it moves across our CWA. The cooler and drier air in the wake of the cold front will knock morning lows into the 40s in our northwest and in the 50s elsewhere. Ridging surface and aloft will build into our CWA from the west Thursday. Dry weather and cooler temperatures will be the result although afternoon highs will continue to be above normal. /22/ Thursday night through next Wednesday... By Thursday evening, an upper low is progged to drive into the Ohio VAlley/Mid-Atlantic region and eventually eject into the Atlantic Ocean. In the wake of the trough, a cold frontal boundary is expected to have cleared the Lower Mississippi Valley. Drier air is expected to infiltrate the region on Friday, with northerly flow prevailing over the CWA through Saturday. PWATs are expected to drop below an inch, allowing for mostly clear skies through the end of the week. Additionally, temperatures are expected to become more seasonable, with highs in the middle 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the lower to upper 40s through the weekend. By Saturday night into Sunday, a subtropical high is expected to build in the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for robust upper ridging over the eastern CONUS. This is expected to increase temperatures once again by Monday. Additionally, moisture will begin to increase as southerly flow is restored across the Lower MS Valley. By next week, abnormally warm temperatures will infiltrate the region, with highs in the middle to upper 70s. By Monday night, another upper low pressure ejecting out Southern Plains will increase rain chances across the region and isolated to scattered showers will prevail through the end of the period. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Ceilings and vsbys continue to be chaotic and mostly in the IFR/MVFR range early this evening as considerable SHRA/VCTS continue to move across the area well ahead of a surface cold front. Drier air moving in aloft is surging in and will bring an end to the precip from west to east as we go through the early/mid evening. After a brief period of low stratus/fog potential following rainfall, the surface front will push through and the mixing should end any fog potential while clearing out skies. For Thursday, expect VFR conditions with northwest surface wind at all sites. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 53 68 46 68 / 60 0 0 0 Meridian 57 70 44 67 / 100 0 0 0 Vicksburg 51 69 44 68 / 20 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 60 74 46 70 / 80 0 0 0 Natchez 52 68 45 69 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 49 65 41 65 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 50 67 43 67 / 60 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 22/KP/EC