Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 201749 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Thunderstorms were resulting in lower flight conditions in the
southeast at 1730Z but VFR conditions were reported elsewhere.
Scattered to numerous TSRA will continue to affect cntrl and east
MS this aftn and into the evening before the activity dissipates.
Away from TSRA activity VFR conds will prevail until after 10Z
Sunday. MVFR cigs are expected to develop by 12Z areawide but
models suggest IFR/LIFR cigs wl be possible in the southeast.
Conditions wl improve to VFR by 17Z but scattered to numerous TSRA
are expected to occasionally bring lower flight conditions to TAF
sites again Sunday. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms over western Alabama has spilled over
into eastern Mississippi already this morning. Have increased pops
along the Interstate 59 corridor and I-20 corridor just east of
Jackson where the greatest coverage is expected to continue going
into this afternoon. Additional shower and thunderstorm
development is expected over central Mississippi this afternoon
with the lowest chances for rain over the delta region. Cloud
cover and rain should hold east Mississippi shy of 90F today but
temperatures are still expected to make the lower 90s over the
western half of our CWA today. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight: Besides the broad ridge over much of the US, a
mid-level disturbance traveling westward along the northern Gulf
Coast will be the main factor in today`s forecast. Currently, all
is quiet over the ArkLaMiss this morning, but convection is
expected to develop early on this afternoon. The increased
moisture over the area and PWs above 2 inches along with the weak
upper troughing will contribute to the increased coverage in
today`s showers and storms. The focus area for today`s activity
will be in the southeastern and eastern parts of the area.
Therefore, temperatures in this area are only anticipated to reach
into the upper 80s before the rain and clouds inhibit it. The
western half of the area will see highs rise into the lower 90s.
Heat indices will top out near 100 degrees today in those areas
west of I-55. Expect the storms to diminish this evening, with
partly cloudy skies prevailing overnight. Lows will fall into the
low to mid 70s. /10/

Sunday through Friday:

Mid level weakness in broad ridge will remain over the forecast area
Sunday promoting another day of scattered convection, but changes
loom on the horizon. The mid level ridge looks to amplify in the
west and breakdown in the east. This will allow a rather potent
shortwave to dig south over the MS valley Sunday night into Monday.
As its attendant cold front plows into the warm/moist airmass over
the region, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
result Monday afternoon over the north and overnight central and
south. Storms moving through northern portions will occur during max
heating and could be somewhat robust compared to overnight into
Tuesday morning elsewhere.

Drier air with dewpoints in the 60s will overspread the area Tuesday
in breezy north to northeast cool air advection. While advection
looks to continue Tuesday night, the drier low level air will help
the boundary layer decouple and surface winds to diminish enough for
lows to fall into the 60s by Wednesday morning. Though the drier air
in place Wednesday should promote efficient warming, continued cool
air advection will offset some of the warming potential where only
low to mid 80s look possible. This begins to change by Thursday as
surface high pressure shifts east and the pressure gradient relaxes.
Maximums should easily reach around 90, but lows once again falling
back into the 60s Thursday night in the continued dry airmass. This
scenario will play out again for Friday, but the boundary looks to
begin backing up by Saturday./GG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  72  89  73 /  55  21  50  18
Meridian      84  71  89  73 /  72  18  51  22
Vicksburg     89  75  90  74 /  21  13  42  17
Hattiesburg   84  72  89  73 /  74  24  59  17
Natchez       87  73  88  73 /  25  21  52  17
Greenville    90  75  89  75 /  12  13  33  17
Greenwood     89  73  89  74 /  33  20  43  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

10/22/26


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