Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 261049 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
549 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
The back edge of the precipitation shield is rapidly pushing east
with the majority of the precipitation being east of the TAF sites
shortly after 26/12Z. Otherwise, mostly MVFR ceilings will prevail
through much of the day as northwest winds continue at 10 to 15
knots and gusts near 25 knots. VFR conditions will return from the
northwest from 26/21Z to 27/00Z. However, MVFR/IFR conditions
will return after 27/06Z as areas of fog and low clouds
develop./26/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Cold core low continues spinning about over AR
this morning with best warm advection/ascent area occurring near the
frontal boundary draped across the forecast area at 26/08Z. Despite
feeble instability, have seen sporadic lightning with some of the
heavier convective elements, most likely attributable to the
expected transient MAUL pockets and shallow CAPE. Models indicate
the best potential for this to continue in areas along the I-20
corridor east of I-55 until mid morning.

Main precipitation area will shift east of the forecast area with
the frontal boundary by mid morning, but showers will linger over
the north in proximity to the mid level cold core. Limited heating
will contribute to the continued instability in these areas, but the
isolated convection will quickly diminish by late afternoon with
decreasing insolation.

Not much of a pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary, thus
with clearing skies the boundary layer will decouple by midnight.
Multiple model and ensemble packages are indicating potential for
dense fog over the eastern two thirds late tonight into early Friday
morning. This seems likely considering the ambient conditions and
the inability of the departing system to scour away the low level
moisture./26/

Friday through Wednesday: A fast moving shortwave will swing
southeast across the forecast area through the course of the day
Friday. This will bring clouds and a small chance for light
showers to the CWA during the late morning and mid-afternoon hours
Friday. This activity will quickly dissipate as the disturbance
exits the region late Friday afternoon, with any lingering
activity dissipating after sunset when daytime heating is lost.
Under partly cloudy skies, highs Friday will warm into the low and
middle 70s. Mostly clear skies are expected Friday night, with
lows again ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Despite a weak reinforcing cold front shifting south through the CWA
Saturday, a quiet stretch of weather is currently expected Saturday
through next Monday. High pressure at the surface centered east of
the region will strengthen across the forecast area, as ridging
aloft builds into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.  This
currently looks to result in mostly sunny skies each day.  Highs
will be a bit warmer each day as we travel through the period.
They`ll begin the period on Saturday afternoon in the mid 70s to
around 80, and will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s come Monday
afternoon. Lows will also follow this warming trend, as they begin
the period Saturday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Then on
Monday night, they`ll only fall into the mid and upper 50s.

Rain chances could begin to creep back into the forecast Tuesday
into Wednesday.  Despite high pressure at the surface and ridging
aloft over the forecast area during these two days, an upper level
disturbance is currently poised to shift across the region Tuesday.
This could spark some showers and storms across a portion of the
CWA.  Then on Wednesday, a closed low ejecting out of the "Four
Corners" region and into the central plains states, could increase
southerly flow and moisture across the region, as a cold front
develops and begins shifting east towards the region. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  53  73  51 /  19   6  19  10
Meridian      66  51  73  50 /  72   9  16   8
Vicksburg     68  53  73  53 /   5   2  20  10
Hattiesburg   71  52  74  50 /  69   1  18  10
Natchez       68  53  73  52 /   2   1  21  11
Greenville    67  53  73  52 /  24   3  16   9
Greenwood     66  52  72  51 /  51   2  16   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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