Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
097 FXUS64 KJAN 270525 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Rest of tonight... Shortwave ridging is building into the ArkLaTex to Gulf Coast region, with sfc high pressure ridge centered over the Appalachians. Northwesterly flow aloft will keep mid-high level moisture & cloudiness across the central to southwestern half of the Gulf Coast region tonight. Lows will be seasonably warm, some 4-12F above (49-60F), warmer in the southwest half under cloudy skies. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 A low pressure system slowly lifting out of the Southwest U.S. heading into the back half of this week will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to our area Friday into Saturday. While a few strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, the primary risk for severe thunderstorms in our area will be Sunday and Monday as a pair of shortwave disturbances move east across the country. Building instability with 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE along and south of a lingering cold front boundary will be fuel for severe thunderstorms especially north of Interstate 20 late Sunday afternoon and evening. 0-6km wind shear of 35-50 kts will support organized updrafts in storms that develop. This should pose a threat for supercell thunderstorms eventually growing upscale overnight with wind shear parallel to the frontal zone. Then as storms push southward Sunday night into Monday morning, the front itself should lose strong support. It`s uncertain whether outflow and the front would allow storms to fully clear southern LA and MS by Monday afternoon, so we are highlighting the potential for additional strong to severe thunderstorms Monday morning into Monday afternoon for areas especially south of Interstate 20. The latest GFS for example retains an area of 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE along the Gulf Coast Monday afternoon. Expect adjustments to the impacts and timing with subsequent forecast updates, but guidance has been fairly consistent with the general setup. We are in the time of year where these fronts don`t quite clear the region and better upper-level forcing pulls northward. The zonal upper-level pattern into Wednesday will allow for the frontal zone to remain in the region, and moist unstable air will remain around the central Gulf Coast. Models diverge with how to handle the upper- level pattern by mid week, but either upstream MCS activity or another upper-level wave could bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the midweek time frame. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High clouds will spread across the area, but no ceiling restrictions will occur. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 83 61 80 63 / 0 0 10 50 Meridian 83 58 82 60 / 0 0 0 20 Vicksburg 83 62 79 63 / 0 0 20 60 Hattiesburg 85 59 82 63 / 0 0 10 30 Natchez 82 63 77 63 / 0 0 40 70 Greenville 81 62 77 63 / 0 0 10 60 Greenwood 83 63 79 63 / 0 10 10 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/NF/DL