274
FXUS64 KJAN 230929
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
429 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Today through Tonight: An ongoing threat for severe will continue
today before diminishing later this evening. Model consensus
continues to highlight a 998 mb sfc low developing across the NW
CONUS before shifting eastward towards southern Canada later this
morning. As the sfc low shifts north towards Canada, broad longwave
troughing will continue to dominate the western and central CONUS.
Any disturbances that ripple out of this longwave trough will
provide the support for diurnal activity to organize and propagate
eastward across the forecast area through this evening. The Slight
Risk area closer to the front (northwest of our CWA) has been
extended further south in order to capture the severe potential
across the Delta. The Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) has been extended
further south in order to capture areas along and north of the I-20
corridor with the threat for damaging wind gusts and hail up to
quarter size cannot be ruled out.

In addition to the severe potential, there may be some potential for
multiple storms to move across the area and produce locally heavy
rainfall of 2 to 3 inches at times which could lead to minor runoff
issues in poor drainage areas along with the potential for localized
flash flooding in a couple of areas. The severe potential will start
to diminish across the area as we head into overnight period with
lingering showers and storms along and north of the Hwy 82 corridor.
The combination of lingering showers and cloud cover will keep
nighttime temperatures in the 70s across the area. /CR/

Friday through Wednesday:Come Friday morning we will still have a
warm moist airmass over our region with PWATs around an inch and a
half with upper 60s to lower 70s dew points. A nearly stacked low
over the northern Plains will be lifting up into Ontario and leaving
a trailing cold front to drift into northern Mississippi and stall.
During the heat of the afternoon storms are expected to develop
along and just ahead of the cold front and spread into our CWA.
Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail up to
quarter size will be the main threats with the storms but a brief
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This activity is expected to
wain during the evening with the loss of heating. The stalled front
will still be across northern Mississippi Saturday but a little
farther north. Isolated severe storms will again be possible with
the same threats but over less of our CWA; mainly along and north of
Highway 82 during the late afternoon and early evening. Sunday mid
level ridging across our south will strengthen some while another
weak low pressure system tracks east across the Plains and southern
Great Lakes region. This low pressure system will try to drop a weak
cold front back into northern Mississippi. There will be the
potential for isolated severe storms across our north again.
Saturday and Sunday across the southern half of moved out of the
warned area.**!the area where greater insolation is expected due to
the mid level ridge, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s
resulting in peak heat index values around 100F. Severe storm
potential across the north along with heat and humidity across the
south will continue Monday but, a more potent low pressure system
tracking east across the Great Lakes region Monday night and Tuesday
looks to bring some relief Tuesday through Wednesday as a clearing
cold front is expected. PWATs are expected to be knocked back below
one inch with lower 60 dew points by Tuesday morning. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Current radar scans show numerous showers and storms moving east
across the forecast area to start off the TAF period with heavier
showers moving across the Delta. Several northern sites (GLH and
GWO) will see a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings through the overnight
period. A brief period of low-level wind shear will occur at GLH
starting around 06Z-08Z Thursday. Elsewhere, expect a mixture of
VFR/MVFR conditions for the remaining TAF sites as showers
continue to move further east. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  72  91  72 /  30  30   0  10
Meridian      89  70  92  71 /  10  10  10  10
Vicksburg     90  72  92  72 /  30  40   0  10
Hattiesburg   91  72  93  72 /  10  10   0   0
Natchez       89  72  91  72 /  20  30   0   0
Greenville    87  72  90  72 /  50  40  10  40
Greenwood     87  71  90  72 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/22/CR