794
FXUS64 KJAN 200549
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Satellite imagery showed a few high clouds from convection over
the Plains that may spread into our CWA prior to sunrise. Surface
analysis had high pressure centered east of our CWA that will
provide a light return flow by sunrise. Together these features
will hold morning lows a couple of degrees warmer than normal.
Forecast needed no changes with this update. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The rest of today through tomorrow...

A building surface ridge will continue to intensify today and
Monday, allowing for mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Winds are expected to remain light and
variable through the overnight, but become light and N/NW by Monday.
Overnight, lingering moisture, light winds, and clear skies may
trigger patchy fog development in the Pine Belt in the early
morning, but confidence is low at the moment. Overnight lows will
remain in the 60s. Monday is expected to remain clear and dry as
surface ridging continues. I hope everyone has a wonderful end to
their weekend! /AJ/

Next week-early next weekend (Tuesday-next Saturday)...

Early-midweek (Tuesday-Wednesday): As the mid-level ridge amplifies
over the Bay of Campeche & Mexico, the low-level ridge axis is
progged to build across the area through mid-week. Sfc high pressure
will build through, while an active upper level jet ejects across
the Mid West. This will drive a strong low pressure system into the
Mid West to Great Lakes. A dry pattern will persist through midweek,
with increased warm advection/low-level temps into the mid-upper
teens to low 20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect seasonably
warm highs in the upper 80s-low 90s & lows in the upper 60s
southeast of the Natchez Trace to low 70s to the northwest. Leaned
towards MOS consensus for lows both Tuesday & Wednesday mornings as
sfc/mid-level ridge axis & light winds should help more efficient
cooling occur, especially southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor.
Heat stress won`t be a concern but increased humidity will aid in
heat indices climbing into low-mid 90s. Ridging should deflect most
storm chances off to the northwest through Wednesday evening, while
some could sneak into the ArkLaMiss Delta during that time.

Late week-early next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): As the trough
swings into the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay, ridge will relax &
gradual height falls will occur as a result across the Gulf Coast.
This keep continued seasonably warm heat & humidity in the upper 80s
to low 90s late week to low-mid 90s into next weekend. There will be
an uptick in scattered rain & storm coverage & westerly zonal flow
for some strong-severe convective potential late week & into the
weekend. Indications remain in long term convective outlooks & CSU
machine learning probs for isolated strong-severe potential during
this time, but depends on how quickly the subtropical ridge relaxes.
Trends have slowed so confidence isn`t high enough to add anything
to the HWO graphics at this time. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Patchy
fog will be possible early this morning near GTR, HBG, and PIB and
this may result in brief visibility reduction. Winds will be light
and variable. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  68  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      89  66  90  65 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     90  68  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   90  68  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       90  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    90  70  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     90  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/DC/SW