735
FXUS62 KJAX 250624
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
224 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 225 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

MVFR visibilities are expected to develop during the predawn
hours at VQQ. A brief period of MVFR visibilities will also be
possible around or just after sunrise at GNV, but confidence was
too low to include in the overnight TAFs. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at the regional terminals
through at least 18Z. Showers and thunderstorms will develop near
the regional terminals along sea breeze boundaries during the
afternoon hours, with activity possibly lingering past 00Z at the
inland terminals. PROB30 groups were maintained at all of the
regional terminals for brief wind gusts up to 30 knots and MVFR
visibilities, mainly after 19Z. VFR conditions are then expected
to prevail again by 03Z Wednesday. Southwesterly surface winds
sustained at 5 knots or less overnight will become west-
southwesterly after sunrise, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots
after 14Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will begin moving
inland a little earlier on Tuesday afternoon, resulting in surface
winds shifting to east- southeasterly and increasing to 10-15
knots before 18Z at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals. The Gulf
coast sea breeze should cross the GNV terminal before 21Z, with
winds shifting to southwest and increasing to around 10 knots
outside of any developing convection. Surface winds will shift to
southeasterly before 21Z at the Duval County terminals. Light
southwesterly winds sustained at 5 knots or less are then expected
after 02Z Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and
a series of troughs which will each stall just to the northwest of
the area this period. This pattern will yield a prevailing southwest
flow. It will be an unsettled period, with afternoon convection
initiated far inland, aided by the Gulf sea breeze. The east coast
sea breeze will make a little progress in the afternoons, but will
struggle to get past I95 due to push of the Gulf breeze. A secondary
max in convection will be possible in the afternoons due to
convergence of sea breezes near I95. Any activity which develops
during the afternoons is expected to dissipate during the evening
hours, with nights mainly dry.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A pattern change is expected this period, with the high becoming
located more toward the east northeast. Troughs are still expected
to move into the southeastern US and stall to the northwest this
period. The prevailing flow will largely be from the south, with
both east and west coast sea breezes becoming active. Afternoon
merges of the sea breezes will be possible. Any activity which
develops in the afternoons will largely diminish during the evening
hours with loss of diurnal heating, with mainly dry nights.

Temperatures and precipitation chances will be above normal this
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Persistent troughing will be to the northwest of the area this week.
High pressure to the east through Thursday, will move more toward
the northeast late in the week. Winds will approach advisory levels
this afternoon and evening, and winds will be below headline levels
the rest of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today. Tuesday, Low SE GA and Moderate NE
FL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  75  97  74 /  30  10  50  20
SSI  92  78  92  78 /  40  20  50  20
JAX  96  75  94  75 /  60  20  60  10
SGJ  94  76  92  76 /  60  30  70  20
GNV  95  73  93  74 /  80  30  90  10
OCF  95  75  93  76 /  80  40  90  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$