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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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775 FXUS62 KJAX 090804 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...NEAR RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY... ...ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER THROUGH MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL... ...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 LATE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Overnight surface analysis depicts weak high pressure (1016 millibars) centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary was sinking southward across the Ohio and Mid- Mississippi Valleys. Aloft...stout ridging was centered along the northern Gulf coast and was building eastward towards our region. Otherwise, troughing was gradually digging east-southeastward from the Great Lakes states and southeastern Canada towards New England and the Ohio Valley. Shortwave energy moving east-southeastward in between these two features was triggering Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) over the southern Plains, the Ozarks, and the Tennessee Valley. Fair skies prevailed region-wide, with a dry, subsident air mass and decoupling winds allowing temperatures and dewpoints to fall to the low and mid 60s for locations northwest of Waycross in southeast GA, with mid to upper 60s extending into western portions of the Suwannee Valley. Temperatures and dewpoints elsewhere remain in the 70s as of 08Z, except along the immediate coast, where temperatures remain around 80 degrees. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The subsident air mass may promote radiation fog development, especially for locations within a more humid environment in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL during the predawn and early morning hours. A few patches of locally dense fog cannot be ruled out early this morning. Any fog that develops will dissipate before the mid-morning hours. Ridging aloft to our west will begin to flatten today as troughing amplifies over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, New England, and the Mid-Atlantic states. This amplifying trough will drive a frontal boundary into the southeastern states tonight. A dry air mass will prevail area-wide today, with prevailing westerly winds likely delaying the development of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary to the early to mid afternoon hours, with this boundary only slowly moving inland towards the I-95 corridor late this afternoon. Some thin cirrus emanating from convection well upstream from our region will drift across our skies this afternoon and tonight, but plenty of sunshine and strong subsidence will only allow for a paltry, flat cumulus field to develop this afternoon along mesoscale boundaries such as the St. Johns River breeze and the inland moving Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. Dewpoints crashing through the 50s this afternoon across inland southeast GA and locations north of I-10 and the 60s elsewhere away from the immediate coast will foster near record high temperatures region-wide today (see Climate section below for details), as inland temperatures approach 100 degrees. The late development of the Atlantic sea breeze will result in coastal highs soaring to the mid and upper 90s before cooling back towards 90s degrees as this boundary moves slowly inland late this afternoon. The dry air mass will keep maximum heat index values in check today despite the near record actual temperatures, with values generally topping out in the 100-105 range for coastal southeast GA and most of northeast and north central FL, with values around or just under 100 degrees for inland southeast GA. Cirrus cloud cover may begin to thicken somewhat overnight as convection traverses the southeastern states along and ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. This cloud cover may remain thin enough for some patchy fog to develop across inland portions of north central FL during the predawn and early morning hours on Monday. Lows tonight will generally fall to the 70-75 degree range, except mid to upper 70s at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Moisture slowly begins to fill in ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the North Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms kick off for the week beginning Monday afternoon with highest chances for precip in SE GA with values of 50-60% while NE FL will see chances in the 40-50% range. Daytime temperatures should be slightly cooler for areas behind the cold front in SE GA with values in the low to mid 90s. Areas ahead of the front will be in the mid to upper 90s range. The cold front will continue to slowly push its way through the region by Tuesday morning, cooling temperatures overnight into the low 70s inland with temps in the mid to upper 70s along the coast. Tuesday, expect rain and isolated thunderstorms chances area wide with chances increasing in the afternoon. Highest percentages will be focused on NE FL. Daytime temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The cold front from the beginning of the week rebounds through the area as a stationary front Wednesday night and hangs around SE GA and the FL/GA line into the weekend. This stationary front will aid in bringing in more moisture to the area, increasing PWAT values to over 2 inches for NE FL by Thursday morning and SE GA by Thursday afternoon and into the weekend. Expect showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the week with the highest chances occurring each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Periods of MVFR to occasional IFR visibilities are expected to develop after 08Z at VQQ and GNV. VFR conditions should otherwise prevail, with radiation fog at VQQ and GNV dissipating towards 13Z. Westerly surface winds sustained around 5 knots or less overnight will increase to 5-10 knots towards 14Z at the regional terminals. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop during the early to mid afternoon hours at coastal locations and will then slowly push inland during the mid to late afternoon hours. Surface winds at SGJ will shift to southeasterly and will increase to around 10 knots after 19Z, while winds shift to southerly around 10 knots at SSI after 20Z. Winds at the Duval County terminals will briefly shift to southeasterly after 22Z before winds at all terminals become southwesterly around 5 knots after 02Z Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A weak pressure pattern will prevail across our local waters through Monday morning, with prevailing offshore winds becoming onshore by late this afternoon over the near shore waters. A southerly evening wind surge may bring speeds up to Caution levels of 15-20 knots tonight, especially for the offshore waters. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through at least midweek. A frontal boundary entering the southeastern states on Monday will stall across our local waters by late Tuesday. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Georgia waters late on Monday afternoon, with this activity weakening as it pushes across the northeast Florida waters on Monday evening. A surge of tropical moisture will then lift northward from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, resulting in waves of widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting our local waters into next weekend. Weak low pressure may develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this week, potentially resulting in strengthening southerly winds. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights should keep the risk low at all area beaches through Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A hot and unseasonably dry air mass will prevail area-wide today, with long durations of critically low relative humidity values for most inland locations and near critical values by early afternoon at coastal locations. Drying fuels and breezy westerly transport winds will present an Elevated Fire Danger for northeast and north central FL, with marginally high to high daytime dispersion values forecast area-wide today. Surface wind speeds will remain just below critical thresholds this afternoon, precluding Red Flag Conditions. Westerly transport winds will increase a little on Monday and will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values at most locations on Monday. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible for locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor late on Monday afternoon and evening. Breezy westerly transport winds and elevated mixing heights will continue on Tuesday, with marginally high to high daytime dispersion values forecast, especially across northeast and north central FL. Widespread, significant rainfall chances increase beginning on Wednesday across our region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Record high temperatures for today and Monday at our official local climate sites: June 9 June 10 ----------------------- Jacksonville 101/1872 100/1954 Gainesville 99/1907 99/1899 Alma, GA 99/1993 103/1954 Craig Airport 97/2006 99/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 98 73 94 71 / 0 0 60 50 SSI 97 78 94 74 / 0 0 60 60 JAX 100 72 98 73 / 0 0 50 40 SGJ 97 76 98 73 / 0 0 40 50 GNV 100 72 96 71 / 0 0 40 40 OCF 99 72 96 73 / 0 0 50 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$