868
FXUS62 KJAX 020000
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

East to Southeast steering flow still on track to push Atlantic
sea breeze well inland and still possible isolated showers and/or
storms to develop as it reaches the Gulf Coast sea breeze or
outflows from ongoing storm activity over SW GA. Not expecting
much convection as abundant dry air mixing in with any activity
will keep rainfall chances around 20% or so. The delayed start to
any convection will allow for slight chance PoPs continue this
evening into the overnight hours. Cloud cover will remain partly
to mostly cloudy tonight as leftover convective debris clouds from
convection west of the region will continue with lows in the 65-70
range inland and 70-75 along the Atlantic Coastal areas. The
airmass will likely remain too dry and mixed through the overnight
hours for any fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Moisture will begin returning to the region on Sunday, with PWATS
generally rising above 1.5 inches area-wide. Both Sunday and
Monday, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected,
with the highest coverage of storms being in the afternoon as the
east coast sea breeze moves inland. Diurnal instability and
increased moisture will promote thunderstorms, however with weak
mid-level lapse rates forecast, only isolated to widely scattered
storm coverage is likely both days.

Highs Sunday will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s, with a slight
warm up forecast for Monday. Mild low temperatures forecast, in
the upper 60s to lower/mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Temperatures will remain hot this week as high pressure builds
overhead, with a gradual slight increase in temps each day through
Friday. By Thursday, with steering flow will shift southwesterly,
so even the immediate east coast will see high temperatures in
the lower 90s.

The general daily trend will be an afternoon/evening isolated to
scattered thunderstorm risk as the sea breezes move inland and
soaring temperatures create enough surface based instability.
Although far out in the forecast, it appears a front will approach
from the northwest late this week, timing and impacts still have a
decent level of uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions will continue overnight into Sunday as high pressure
builds just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina with light
east to southeasterly winds 5-8 knots diminishing to variable
around 3-5 knots towards 06Z. Dry airmass and presence of mid and
high level clouds will limit any chance of significant fog through
sunrise. Weak impulse aloft traveling in from the FL peninsula
and the collision of the east coast seabreeze with Gulf seabreeze
far inland near or just west of GNV after 19Z will create enough
coverage of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to warrant
VCTS at GNV with some of this activity pressing towards the coast
by late afternoon due to higher level westerly wind flow and have
placed VCSH after 21Z for JAX, CRG, VQQ, SGJ, and SSI. Mid level
clouds will persist and lower as moisture increases Sunday across
the area. Winds will be predominatly southeasterly 6-8 knots
inland with more easterly winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze 8-10
knots at duval county TAF sites and 10-12 knots at the coast
where some higher gusts around 15-10 knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

High pressure will build off of the Carolinas this afternoon into
Sunday with winds turning more southeasterly. The high will
shift near Bermuda early next week with lighter southeasterly
winds turning southerly midweek with isolated thunderstorms
returning to the waters in the afternoon and early evening as a
cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday with winds
turning southwesterly.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk on Sunday for NE FL and SE
GA beaches as onshore winds begin to calm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Water levels continue to recede along lower portions of the
Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson, where water levels will
fall below flood stage by this afternoon to evening. Water levels
have already begun to recede along lower portions of the Santa Fe
River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor flooding
will continue through most of the upcoming week due to backwater
flooding effects from action level water levels along lower
portions of the Suwannee River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  85  67  89 /  10  50  20  30
SSI  74  84  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  69  86  69  89 /  10  30  20  30
SGJ  71  86  72  87 /  10  30  20  20
GNV  67  89  67  91 /  10  50  10  40
OCF  67  90  68  92 /  10  50  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$