821
FXUS62 KJAX 181717
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
117 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Minor changes with this morning`s update. Gusty easterly winds
have begun to develop this morning along the Atlantic coast and
will spread inland through the day. Peak gusts of 25-35 mph are
expected with the potential for an isolated place along the coast to
reach 40 mph later this afternoon into evening. This onshore flow
will continue a high risk of rip currents, small craft advisory
conditions and rough surf. Dry airmass and subsidence has settled
over the region with the 12Z KJAX sounding measuring a PWAT of
1.05 in. Waves of weak and low-topped showers will move onshore
through the day in the easterly flow and won`t provide much in
rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Deep layer onshore flow will continue a breezy Easterly winds
through the near term period with scattered showers moving onshore
at times through tonight with an isolated thunderstorm not out of
the question. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal
with highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper 80s
along the I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland
areas. Easterly winds will increase during the daytime hours to
sustained at 15-25 mph with peak gusts into the 30-40 mph range,
likely remaining just below Wind Advisory levels. The onshore flow
will continue a high risk of rip currents and rough surf of 3-5 ft
will develop but Coastal Flooding is not expected at this time.
Winds diminish over inland areas tonight with the Easterly flow
will remain breezy along the Atlantic Coast with continued
scattered showers pushing onshore into the Atlantic Coastal areas
at least as far inland to the US 17 corridor and the St. Johns
River Basin through the night. Lows temps will fall into the upper
60s/near 70 across inland SE GA and lower 70s across inland NE FL,
with the onshore flow keeping the Atlantic Coastal areas warm and
muggy in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Surface high pressure ridge will be centered to the northeast
through Thursday. This pattern will continue the onshore flow. Weak
waves will move west through the flow, leading to enhanced winds,
especially at the coast. These weak waves will also be responsible
for helping to generate showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms
during the heating of the afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday.

On Thursday night, the high to the northeast will weaken and move
further away to the northeast, as an inverted trough moves west
toward the east coast of FL. Shower chances will continue into
Thursday night, along with elevated and gusty winds.

Due to the onshore flow, high temperatures will be below normal,
while lows run near to a little above.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Weakening inverted trough will move west across area Friday through
Friday night, as high builds further away to the northeast.

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east northeast
Saturday through Monday. This pattern will result in a flow more
from the south southeast. This is a more moist flow pattern.
Expecting greater than normal precipitation chances throughout this
period.

After a near normal temperature day on Friday, the rest of this
period will trend above.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Gusty easterly winds continue into this evening with sustained
speeds of 15-20 kts and gusts 20-28 kts. Isolated weak showers
will continue to shift onshore and pass near the TAF sites today,
mainly SGJ. Winds will be slow to subside overnight at the
coastal terminals and will generally remain sustained around 15
knots, while speeds at the inland terminals decrease to 5-10 knots
after 06Z. MVFR stratocumulus may move across SGJ in the pre-dawn
hours. Easterly winds quickly increase once again after 12Z with
another round of showers moving onshore. Shower coverage will be
isolated to scattered tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Small Craft Advisories will develop across the waters with
Easterly winds around 20 knots and seas building to 6 to 8 feet
and remaining this way through Thursday as the Easterly/Tropical
wave pushes into the coastal waters Thursday Night or Early
Friday, then winds will shift to the Southeast following the wave
by this weekend with a decrease in wind speeds to 10-15 knots and
slowly subsiding seas below headline levels.

Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of
rip currents this week with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft today will
build to 4-6 ft on Wednesday/Thursday. With the approach of the
full moon later this week, water levels will start to run above
normal but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the
onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  69  88  69 /  10  10  20  10
SSI  86  76  86  77 /  30  30  60  30
JAX  88  72  87  73 /  30  30  70  30
SGJ  87  76  87  76 /  30  30  80  60
GNV  90  72  90  71 /  10  10  50  20
OCF  91  74  91  73 /  10  10  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$