027
FXUS62 KJAX 191910
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf


Elongated ridging extending from the Mid Atlantic region NE into
the Canadian Martimes is supporting strong high pressure east of
Cape Cod. Clockwise flow around the high is providing deep
easterly flow with weak inverted troughing north of the Bahamas
towards the Outer Banks. A weak wave within the inverted troughing
pattern has brought scattered, low topped showers mainly from St
Augustine northwards into coastal SE GA which should fade with
inland extend over NE FL, but a few showers may intrude towards
Waycross to US 441 over SE GA. Partly cloudy skies will remain the
trend today with winds breeziest at the coast 15-25 mph with
gusts to 30-35 through early evening, but under wind advisory
levels. Highs will be cooler along the coast in the mid 80s and
warm to the low 90s over inland NE FL and around 90 across far
western SE GA.

Tonight, another wave of coastal showers will arrive onshore by
mid evening and focus more so along coastal NE FL before shifting
west of I-95 after midnight to US highway 301. Pockets of heavier
amounts 0.25-0.50 may fall in isolated spots with general amounts
around a tenth of an inch to under a quarter of an inch. Skies
will be mostly cloudy along the NE FL coast as the showers shift
onshore. Lows will be warmest at the coast in the upper 70s to
near 80 and low 70s over NE FL`s interior with upper 60s to around
70 readings over inland portions of SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Elevated easterly- northeasterly winds and gusts up to 25-30 mph will
continue through Thursday and begin to diminish a bit by Friday
evening with high pressure remaining to the north of the area.
Diurnal pattern of showers and storms on Thursday is expected
ahead of an approaching surface trough of low pressure, currently
located to the east of the Bahamas, as it moves west- northwest
towards the FL peninsula on Thursday. Come Friday, the surface
trough is expected to move across the FL peninsula from east to
west, bringing increase rain chances for NE FL and SE GA. The
trough should clear the area by the evening on Friday. The
elevated winds from the past week will begin to subside and become
southeasterly heading into the weekend as the trough moves out.

Daytime temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be range from the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with warmer temperatures over the far
inland locations. Overnight lows will reside mainly in the 70s

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Southeasterly- southerly flow will be in place on Saturday as the
high pressure north of the area begins to track further to our
north- northeast. Winds are not expected to be as elevated as
earlier in the week as the pressure gradient won`t be as strong. A
typical summertime convective pattern with daily shower and
thunderstorm chances into the upcoming week is expected. Slightly
below normal temperatures during the weekend will rise to sit at
around normal levels heading into next week as the overall flow
will be from the southwest.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Primarily VFR scattered to broken clouds around at 3500-6000 ft with
isolated to scattered shower activity. Most of the showers in the
next 1-3 hours will be located near around JAX metro areas and
into near SSI, with TEMPO group in for a couple of the metro TAFs.
A better chance of showers expected tonight, and included TEMPO
group for SGJ. Additional chances for showers on Thursday but
rain chances fairly limited near 30 percent so VCSH will suffice
for now. Sfc winds will be easterly to about 15-20G25-30kt and
will generally weaken tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024


Elongated ridging extending from the Mid Atlantic region NE into
the Canadian Martimes are supporting strong high pressure east
of Cape Cod. Clockwise flow around the high is providing deep
easterly flow with weak inverted troughing north of the Bahamas
towards the Outer Banks. A weak wave within the inverted troughing
pattern has brought scattered, low topped showers mainly from St
Augustine northwards into coastal SE GA which should fade with
inland extend over NE FL, but a few showers may intrude towards
Waycross to US 441 over SE GA. Partly cloudy skies will remain
the trend today with winds breeziest at the coast 15-25 mph
with gusts to 30-35 through early evening, but under wind advisory
levels. Highs will be cooler along the coast in the mid 80s and
warm to the low 90s over inland NE FL and around 90 across far
western SE GA.

Tonight, another wave of coastal showers will arrive onshore by
mid evening and focus more so along coastal NE FL before shifting
west of I-95 after midnight to US highway 301. Pockets of heavier
amounts 0.25-0.50 may fall in isolated spots with general amounts
around a tenth of an inch to under a quarter of an inch. Skies
will be mostly cloudy along the NE FL coast as the showers shift
onshore. Lows will be warmest at the coast in the upper 70s to
near 80 and low 70s over NE FL`s interior with upper 60s to around
70 readings over inland portions of SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  90  69  90 /  10  10  10  60
SSI  77  86  77  87 /  30  20  60  70
JAX  73  87  73  88 /  40  30  50  70
SGJ  76  86  76  89 /  50  50  70  70
GNV  71  89  71  90 /  20  30  30  70
OCF  74  90  73  93 /  20  30  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$