Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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427 FXUS62 KJAX 131801 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low pressure continues to move offshore, with a front laying across central Florida leaving ample moisture for scattered to numerous afternoon showers with embedded isolated thunderstorm potential across NE FL. The highest coverage of showers and storms will be over north central Florida where sea breezes interact, locally heavy downpours will be the primary concern today as PWATs sit near 2 inches in that area. Mild low temperatures forecast tonight, with the coast staying in the mid to upper 70s, with lower 70s inland and calm winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Friday, southern stream mid to upper level trough will sink south and east of our area as ridging aloft builds eastward from the mid south region. The former feature will help push the previously stalled frontal boundary into central FL and steer the weak low northeast away from the region into the western Atlantic waters with weak high pressure delivering some drier air. This will limit higher pops to the southern St Johns river basin and over north central FL where higher moisture levels reside just behind the frontal boundary. Northeast winds will push the Atlantic seabreeze well inland with scattered shower development along and west of I-95 inland to areas south of the Okefenokee Swamp of SE GA shifting south and west to much of inland NE FL with embedded widely scattered T`storms. Rainfall amounts will be overall light under a tenth of an inch over SE GA and under a quarter of an inch across NE FL as showers shift south and west with some locally higher rainfall amounts over portions of north central FL. Highs will be cooler along our coast into the upper 80s and hotter inland with mid 90s west of highway 301. Saturday, as low and mid level ridging moves over the region, rising heights will allow highs to be hotter inland reaching the upper 90s west of I-95 and around 100 degrees west of highway 301 from abundant sunshine. Max heat index values will rise above 100 to around 105 degrees over many locations. Away from the coast, a widely isolated T`storm is possible over SE GA with widely scattered T`storms south of I-10 in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Mid to upper level ridging will build over the area northward into the southern Appalachian mountains Sunday and expand north and east towards New England through midweek. This pattern will support a backdoor cold front moving down the southeast coast towards the area late Sunday and moving through the area Monday before stalling near or just south of the area with onshore breezy easterly flow. Precipitation chances will be in the 20-30 percent range Sunday and 30-40 percent range Monday and Tuesday with widely scattered T`storms mainly over NE FL away from the coast as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland towards the Gulf coast each day. Pops will increase to 40-60 percent over NE FL midweek with scattered to numerous T`storms across NE FL as moisture steadily increases with isolated to scattered T`storm coverage over SE GA. Temperatures during the period will start above normal Sunday with upper 90s far inland and then cool to near average Monday into next week with mid/upper 80s coast and low 90s inland. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Scattered showers will be moving through NE FL and SE GA this afternoon, therefore have places VCSH in all the sites, with GNV having the highest chance for VCTS. Gusty easterly winds will calm after sunset, with VFR conditions expected overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A weak tropical low will slowly organize offshore of the southeast coast through the rest of this week, see the latest NHC outlook for details on the low. Breezy east to northeast winds over the local waters as high pressure remains to the north of the area. A stalled front over the waters will allow for showers and thunderstorms over the waters through Friday. Stronger high pressure will build south from Eastern great lakes on Saturday and push the frontal boundary south of the local waters with decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Light easterly winds Saturday will become breezy on Sunday into early next week as the high builds down the eastern seaboard and then shifts northeast of the region next week. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL and SE GA beaches through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 94 72 99 / 0 10 0 20 SSI 76 89 76 91 / 20 30 0 10 JAX 73 92 72 96 / 10 40 0 10 SGJ 75 89 73 93 / 30 50 10 20 GNV 73 94 70 98 / 20 50 10 30 OCF 73 94 73 96 / 40 60 20 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$