168
FXUS62 KJAX 141825
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon/evening...Wave of energy aloft over the NE Gulf
will track into NE FL with a slow wiggle northward of frontal
boundary into the local area, while at the surface a surge of
breezy Northeast winds flowing southward across SE GA will meet
the old frontal boundary near the FL/GA border and expect numerous
to widespread shower activity to break out, along with a few
embedded storms with locally heavy rainfall continuing as the main
impact, although a few strong storms with some gusty winds to
40-50 mph cannot be ruled out. Main corridor for the heavy
rainfall threat will be from the I-10 corridor of NE FL northward
across SE GA and will keep Flood Watch in place across inland SE
GA for now, although heavy rainfall/localized flooding threat
could occur anywhere these two systems meet. Max temps generally
topping out in the 80s, at slightly below normal levels. Along
with the rainfall impact, Northeast winds will become breezy along
the Atlantic Coastal areas, mainly along the SE GA coastal
counties where NE winds will increase to 15-20G25-30 mph range
through the afternoon/evening hours.

Tonight...After sunset, the energy aloft will shift East of the
region and inland storm activity will fade, but the old frontal
boundary at the surface will be left behind across NE FL with a
continued North to Northeast flow at the surface and expect at
least scattered shower activity to linger across many locations
with best chances along the Atlantic Coast from Brunswick to
Jacksonville where some isolated storms will also be possible and
some heavy downpours will continue to be possible in any coastal
convergent bands that develop through the overnight hours. Further
inland south of the frontal boundary across inland NE FL/I-75
corridor, some patchy fog will be possible, but enough low level
flow should be around to keep it from become dense. Low temps will
generally be in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along the
Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The frontal boundary will remain draped across the Florida
peninsula through the forecast period. Meanwhile an associated
area of low pressure over the gulf stream will gradually develop
(NHC now indicating a 30% chance of development in the next 48
hours) and is expected to move towards the coast of the Carolinas.
Breezy northeasterly winds, due to local pressure gradient
tightening further, will bring gusty conditions for coastal
locations as wind gusts of up to 20 mph will be possible.
Convergence along the frontal boundary, and upper energy from the
remnants of Francine will support daily showers and embedded
thunderstorms, but dry air moving into the area will likely
limited some development on Sunday.

Warmer daytime temperatures for our north central Florida counties
as temperatures will rise to the lower 90s, as the rest of the
area will see temperatures from the low to upper 80s. Overnight
lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Above average PWATs for mid-September continue Tuesday into
Wednesday as a front remains stalled over northern Florida,
keeping rain chances likely over northeast Florida both days with
slightly lower chances over southeast Georgia. Thursday, the front
will begin to dissipate as steering flow shifts northwesterly,
bringing in drier air. PWATs near climatology (1.5-1.8") will move
in lowering precipitation potential area-wide, with chances maxing
out at 30-40% near the most southern counties Thursday and Friday,
with inland areas potentially staying rain-free. Temperatures will
be just at or below normal next week, with highs ranging from the
lower 80s to upper 80s, and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Convection breaking out across the TAF site area in NE FL/Coastal
SE GA with numerous to widespread showers expected and TEMPO`s
will be needed for all TAF sites in the 19-23Z time frame for
potential TSRA activity, as conds will be mainly MVFR with TEMPO
IFR VSBYS in TSRA activity. Northeast flow will slowly increase at
SSI to 14g21kt this afternoon, with lesser NE winds at NE FL TAF
sites. After sunset time frame (around 00Z) this evening expect
TSRA chances to fade back to lingering showers (VCSH) through the
overnight hours at SSI/JAX/CRG/SGJ, while the inland TAF sites of
VQQ are expected to drop to IFR CIGS after 06Z and LIFR CIGS at
GNV. Shower activity will increase after 15Z on Sunday and will
add PROB30 groups for this potential increase at SSI/JAX/CRG
towards the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

High pressure centered off the New England coast will be
reinforced by a stronger high pressure center on Sunday, with this
feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard through early
portions of the upcoming week. Meanwhile, low pressure will
develop over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to the southeastern
seaboard on Sunday, with this system potentially acquiring
tropical characteristics early in the upcoming week as it moves
northwestward towards the Carolina coast. Otherwise, a stationary
frontal boundary will remain situated just south of our local
waters through midweek, bringing episodes of showers and
thunderstorms.

Strengthening northeasterly winds and building seas will bring
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the offshore Georgia waters
this afternoon, where wind speeds will increase to around 20
knots, with seas building to Caution levels of 4-6 feet this
afternoon and then 5-7 feet tonight. Caution conditions are expected
for the near shore Georgia waters this afternoon, as wind speeds
increase to 15-20 knots and seas build to 3-5 feet this afternoon,
building further to 4-6 feet tonight. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will then overspread to local waters north of St.
Augustine by Sunday and Sunday night as northeasterly winds
continue to strengthen and seas build. Seas will peak in the 7-10
foot range offshore on Monday and Monday night, with 5-7 foot seas
near shore. Winds and seas will then gradually diminish towards
midweek as low pressure pivots northward across the coastal
Carolinas and moves towards the Mid- Atlantic states.

Rip Currents: Increasing northeasterly flow will lead to a high
risk of rip currents for all area beaches through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Slow moving downpours and embedded thunderstorms are expected
across portions of inland southeast GA this afternoon. Saturated
ground conditions for locations from Alma westward will exacerbate
the Flood potential, and a Flood Watch has been issued through
early this evening. 1-2 inches of rainfall are expected within the
Flood Watch area today, with localized totals of 3-4 inches
possible. Slow moving downpours and embedded thunderstorms
elsewhere this afternoon and evening may result in localized
flooding, especially at urban and normally flood prone, low-lying
areas. This localized flood potential will likely extend into
early portions of the upcoming week, as waves of downpours
potentially stream onshore from the Atlantic waters due to
strengthening onshore winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  81  68  80 /  40  50  20  40
SSI  74  81  72  82 /  60  60  40  40
JAX  73  82  72  82 /  50  60  40  60
SGJ  74  86  74  86 /  40  50  30  60
GNV  71  87  71  86 /  20  50  10  60
OCF  72  90  72  90 /  20  30  10  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-132-
     137-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.

     Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>134-149.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ452-472.

&&

$$