Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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251 FXUS62 KJAX 101806 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 206 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 909 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Forecast remains on track through today and tonight with only a slight adjustment to Td levels at this time. Potential for widely scattered severe storms over southeast Georgia, near record heat levels, and elevated fire danger fir northeast and north central Florida are still in place. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Early morning surface analysis depicts a slow moving frontal boundary extending across the Deep South. Aloft...troughing continues to dig southward from the Great Lakes and New England, with ridging aloft migrating southward while flattening over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and the FL peninsula. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates an unseasonably dry and subsident air mass over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico that was advecting across locations south of Interstate 10, where PWAT values were generally below 1.3 inches at inland location. Values elsewhere were generally around 1.5 inches, which is slightly below mid-June climatology. Mostly thin cirrus clouds were moving overhead, with convective activity along the frontal boundary remaining well north of our region, or over east central and northeast GA. Temperatures at inland locations were mostly in the low to mid 70s as of 08Z, with dewpoints generally in the 60s. Meanwhile, an offshore breeze was keeping coastal temperatures generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Troughing aloft will continue to dig southward towards our region, with the frontal boundary slowly pushing into southeast GA late this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a pocket of dry and subsident air leftover from the flattening ridge that was in place over our area this weekend will remain in place today across northeast FL, while deeper tropical moisture over the Straits of FL begins to advect northward through the FL Peninsula later today. A narrow ribbon of deeper moisture accompanying the frontal boundary will become positioned over southeast GA late this afternoon and evening, triggering scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Bulk west-southwesterly shear values will increase to around 40 knots for locations north of Waycross later today, with intense heating bringing ML CAPE values up to around 1,500 j/kg, setting the stage for potential strong to severe thunderstorms. Stronger convection over southeast GA late this afternoon and this evening will be capable of producing downburst winds of 40-60 mph, hail, and frequent lightning strikes, and the presence of a pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary along the I-95 corridor could even present an isolated tornado/waterspout threat for the Golden Isles. Otherwise, near record high temperatures can be expected again today, as temperatures generally climb to the 95-100 degree range. The dry and subsident air mass over northeast and north central FL should keep maximum heat index values around 100, while values climb to the 100-105 range this afternoon for locations along and east of I-95 in coastal southeast GA, as humidity values climb in the wake of a pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue early this evening for portions of inland southeast GA and the Golden Isles, with activity struggling to progress southward due to the lingering subsident air mass over northeast FL. This air mass will depart after midnight as the digging trough aloft scoops up the deeper tropical moisture over the FL peninsula and advects it towards north central FL during the predawn hours on Tuesday. Showers and possibly a lower topped thunderstorm or two could develop during the predawn hours for Marion, Flagler, and southern Putnam Counties, where PWATS will rapidly increase to near 2 inches towards sunrise. Lows tonight will fall to the low and mid 70s inland, with mid to upper 70s forecast at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A frontal boundary hanging over the local area will remain through midweek, SW flow ahead of the boundary will work to bring tropical moisture northward across much of the Florida peninsula. The increase in moisture, with guidance suggesting PWAT values ranging from 1.5" to 2.0" over north central Florida, will bring higher chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the north central FL counties during the afternoon hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. Current estimates of 1.0" to 1.25" inches of rainfall over north central FL. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tropical moisture is expected to remain over most of the Florida peninsula, current model guidance suggests PWAT values ranging from 1.5" to 2.0" over north central FL counties during the end of the upcoming work week. As such, a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been placed by the WPC for the north central FL counties in our area. Daily precipitation chances will continue into the upcoming weekend, but guidance suggests the tropical moisture over the local area will be much lower from the previous few days. Temperature highs will begin in the lower 90s during the later half of the week, dropping to the upper 80s across most of the local area by the end of the weekend. Temperature lows expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Initially VFR conditions will eventually give way for showers and thunderstorms for SSI this afternoon as convection builds in over SE GA ahead of the advancing frontal boundary with a potential for widely scattered strong to severe storms. Possible convection occurring in conjunction with the daytime sea breeze at around 21z forming over coastal areas of NE FL and potentially affecting SGJ this afternoon. Prevailing surface winds will continue to be out of the SW-W through the afternoon with the diurnal coastal sea breeze staying close to the coast. Conditions will clear for GA overnight, however there is still a potential for developments over SGJ and GNV through Tuesday morning as convection develops ahead of the stalled frontal boundary. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A frontal boundary over the southeastern states will move southward, stalling over the Georgia waters tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly closer to the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters. Severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening over the Georgia waters will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, hail, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Outside of thunderstorm activity, southerly winds will likely surge to Caution levels of 15-20 knots over the offshore waters this evening. Seas of 2-3 feet both near shore and offshore today will build to 3-5 feet offshore tonight. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread our local waters from south to north on Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal boundary remains stalled over our region. Prevailing onshore winds are expected late this week and into the weekend as weak low pressure potentially develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through the weekend. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore from Tuesday through the upcoming weekend. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights should keep the rip current risk low at all area beaches through Tuesday. Prevailing onshore winds developing on Wednesday should result in a moderate risk at area beaches by late this week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 An Elevated Fire Danger will continue today across northeast and north central FL, where long durations of critically low relative humidity values will be possible at inland locations as temperatures soar to the mid to upper 90s. Otherwise, breezy westerly transport winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create high to very high daytime dispersion values nearly area-wide today. Surface wind speeds should remain just below Red Flag Warning criteria this afternoon across northeast and north central FL. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast GA late this afternoon through the evening hours. A drier air mass will briefly move over inland portions of southeast GA on Tuesday, where transport winds will shift to northwesterly. Otherwise, breezy southwest to westerly transport winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create good daytime dispersion values nearly area-wide on Tuesday. Transport winds will then shift to east and southeasterly on Wednesday, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms spreading from south to north. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Record high temperatures at official local climate sites today: June 10 ---------- Jacksonville 100/1954 Gainesville 99/1899 Alma, GA 103/1954 Craig Airport 99/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 91 70 91 / 50 30 10 30 SSI 77 89 76 86 / 40 50 30 50 JAX 73 93 72 89 / 10 70 30 70 SGJ 76 92 73 88 / 20 70 40 80 GNV 73 93 71 91 / 20 70 30 80 OCF 73 91 72 91 / 50 70 40 90 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$