Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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282 FXUS62 KJAX 142333 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 733 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain possible near the I-75 corridor later this afternoon and evening. Tonight, onshore winds will keep mild lows along the coast, only falling to the mid 70s. Inland, lows will drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s with calm winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Saturday, as low and mid level ridging moves over the region, rising heights will allow highs to be hotter inland reaching the mid to upper 90s west of I-95 under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be slightly lighter than today over inland areas 5-10 mph and about 8-12 mph behind the Atlantic seabreeze along the SE GA coast and towards highway 301 in NE FL with a southerly Gulf seabreeze that should press inland to near I-75 by late afternoon 5-10 mph. Max heat index values will range 100 to 105 degrees over NE FL and around 100 over SE GA. Drier air over SE GA will nearly eliminate precipitation chances with a few showers/lone T`storm south of I-10 while a bit more coverage over our southern most counties where coverage will include widely scattered showers and T`storms. A few coastal showers may work onshore Saturday night with humid overnight lows in the upper 70s to near 80 at the beaches and the low to mid 70s inland. Sunday, A cold front arriving from the north will help to bring an increase in moisture with easterly flow bringing the Atlantic seabreeze well inland before merging with the Gulf seabreeze west of I-75 over NE FL/north central where more T`storms will focus. Skies will be more partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and T`storms for the rest of the area across NE FL and isolated coverage over SE GA. High temperatures will be less hot by a few degrees Sunday as ridging aloft shifts more north and east of our area with middle 90s west of highway 301, low 90s along I-95 to around 90 at the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Mid to upper level ridging will build NNE from the Carolinas into the NE states and New England through next week. A back door cold front will dissipate as it shifts south along the SE US coast to the area Monday with drier air aloft filtering into our area as high pressure builds off the coast of New England. This pattern will support partly to mostly cloudy skies each day as coastal showers move onshore and then diminish farther inland with highest pops along the NE FL coast 50-70 percent ranging to only 15-30 percent across SE GA where additional dry air will be in place. By Thursday, the GFS and ECMWF show an upper trough migrating west from near Bermuda towards the area which will increase moisture levels by late in the week to around 2.00 inches of precipitable water. The combination of higher moisture and shortwave energy from the upper trough will bump up coverage of showers and T`storms to numerous (55-75 percent) over NE FL and along the coast with numerous to widespread showers and T`storms Friday (65-85 percent) and scattered to numerous coverage over SE GA (40-60 percent). This pattern will support a backdoor cold front moving down the southeast coast towards the area late Sunday and moving through the area Monday before stalling near or just south of the area with onshore breezy easterly flow. Precipitation chances will be in the 20-30 percent range Sunday and 30-40 percent range Monday and Tuesday with widely scattered T`storms mainly over NE FL away from the coast as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland towards the Gulf coast each day. Pops will increase to 40-60 percent over NE FL midweek with scattered to numerous T`storms across NE FL as moisture steadily increases with isolated to scattered T`storm coverage over SE GA. Temperatures during the period will be near average Monday along the coast and bit above normal inland, then near normal the rest of the week thanks to easterly onshore flow and partly to mostly cloudy sky cover. Low temperatures will be above normal along the coast in the mid to upper 70s and near normal inland in the low 70s to around 70. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 724 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Clouds are slowly dissipating across the area with VFR for most this evening. The exception is SGJ which is holding onto MVFR cloud decks, which should gradually diminish over the next 1-2 hours. A fair amount of low level moisture could result in some areas of fog tonight, especially away from the coastal sites. Confidence is not high enough for conditions below VFR in the forecast except for VQQ at this time, though MVFR is certainly possible at JAX/CRG/GNV towards morning. Convection is expected to be at a minimum on Saturday Afternoon. Only included VCSH for GNV at this time, and TSRA is unlikely at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Low pressure will continue to move to the northeast through Saturday. Stronger high pressure will build to the north northeast Saturday night through Sunday ushering in a prolonged period of onshore flow, although wind and sea conditions at this time are expected to remain just below small craft advisory levels. Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Saturday for NE FL and SE GA beaches. Elevated rip current Sunday into early next week as onshore winds increase. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Min RH values will lower to 30-35 percent Saturday afternoon over inland areas with areas of high daytime dispersions from high mixing heights and elevated transport winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 98 72 95 / 0 10 10 20 SSI 76 91 78 89 / 0 10 10 20 JAX 72 95 73 92 / 0 10 0 20 SGJ 74 91 75 90 / 0 20 10 30 GNV 71 95 70 94 / 10 30 10 40 OCF 72 95 73 94 / 10 60 10 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$