297
FXUS62 KJAX 221621
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1221 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Areas of dense fog over inland areas quickly dissipating and will
leave mostly sunny skies for most areas, except for some low level
clouds pushing onto the SE GA coastal areas and this pool of extra
moisture will likely be the initiation of some isolated showers
along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves inland across SE GA
with rainfall chances around 20%, while a slightly drier airmass
aloft across NE FL will keep rainfall chances around 10% with the
inland moving East coast sea breeze. Max temps will push into the
middle 80s along the Atlantic Coastal areas before the sea breeze
pushes inland and reach into the upper 80s along the I-95 corridor
and across most of SE GA, while abundant sunshine across inland NE
FL should lead to Max temps around 90 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Low stratus and patchy to areas of fog will develop until just
after sunrise with light easterly winds a bit higher at the coast
8-12 mph and 5-10 mph inland as weak high pressure ridging settles
across the Atlantic waters just east of the GA coast. A few brief,
transient showers may develop along the westward moving Atlantic
seabreeze, especially west of highway 301 where some stronger
low level instability will be located, but by and large dry air
aloft and subsidence will prevent organized shower development
through this afternoon and overnight. Highs will be warmer by
a few degrees compared to Tuesday with upper 80s inland to around
90 over north central FL and mid 80s at the coast.

Tonight, skies will begin mostly clear with low stratus and patchy
fog developing late. Lows will be near to a bit above normal with
mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Upper level ridge will be over the forecast area during this period,
leading to dry conditions with a warming trend. High temperatures
Thursday will be 85-90 east of I-95 corridor to the coast, lower
90s further inland. High temperatures Friday will be in the lower-
mid 90s inland, upper 80s coast...above normal for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Upper level ridge over the area will be flattened by shortwaves
passing over GA and the Carolinas this Weekend. These waves could
bring small rain chances to our forecast area, with better chances
N of the area.

A significant pattern change occurs Mon-Wed as intense upper trough
develops over the eastern U.S...bringing greater rain chances Tue-Wed.

Latest consensus guidance keeps above normal temperatures for the area
Mon-Tue, with somewhat lower temperatures Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Morning diurnal Cumulus development has lifted to VFR levels at
all TAF sites and expect this to continue through the rest of the
afternoon hours with rainfall chances remaining too low (below 20
percent) to include in the TAF forecasts. Main impacts late
tonight will be fog chances at inland TAF sites with likely MVFR
vsbys at VQQ from 07-11Z and possible MVFR vsbys at JAX/GNV around
sunrise (09-11Z) Thursday morning. This will be followed by low
chances of another round of brief MVFR CIGS from 13-15Z at all TAF
sites Thursday morning, but these probs remain less than 30% for
now and will just continue a SCT cloud deck in the 1500-2500 ft
range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Today, high pressure ridging will shift into the Southeast Georgia
waters with easterly light winds, then shift into the Northeast
Florida waters Thursday with southerly winds turning southeasterly
and increasing nearshore due to the Atlantic seabreeze circulation
which will continue each afternoon from Friday through the weekend.
Winds will become more southwesterly early next week with storm
chances increasing as a cold front approaches form the northwest.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Thursday for all area
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  66  92  69 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  83  71  85  72 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  88  67  90  69 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  86  68  87  69 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  91  65  92  67 /  20   0  10   0
OCF  93  66  93  69 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$