621
FXUS62 KJAX 211255
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
855 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track with near term model guidance still
suggesting that a combination of coastal trough moving onshore and
East coast sea breeze development and inland push through the
afternoon hours will kick off scattered showers and potential
isolated thunderstorms across NE FL, mainly south of the I-10
corridor. PWATs already around 1 inch or so and expected to
increase closer to 1.5 inches as the sea breeze and mid level
impulse push onshore through the day. Max temps at or slightly
below normal levels with highs in the 80s for most locations.
Breezy Northeast winds will expected at the coast in the
15-20G25-30 mph range with 10-15G20 mph winds expected further
inland. Rainfall chances and cloud cover will fade quickly around
sunset with skies becoming mostly clear overnight and lows
expected in the 60s inland and near 70 along the coast. Patchy to
areas of fog expected towards sunrise with locally dense fog
possible over inland areas, mainly along the I-10 corridor
northward across inland SE GA.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Onshore flow pattern continues Today, which could lead to a few
coastal showers moving inland during the late morning and afternoon
hours. High temperatures Today are expected to be around 80
coast, lower-mid 80s inland, possibly upper 80s Marion Co.

For Tonight...expecting mostly clear skies with low temperatures
in the lower to mid 60s well inland...around 70 coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Ridging aloft will be over the Carolinas on Wednesday as a weak
cutoff trough east of the waters exits further eastward into the
western Atlantic. This pattern will support surface high pressure
along the Carolina coast Wednesday with light easterly winds and
dry conditions due to subsidence and highs near normal in the low
to mid 80s and warmer inland into the upper 80s to near 90.

Wednesday night, skies will be mostly clear with lows in the mid
to upper 60s inland and around 70 along the coast. Patchy fog
will develop inland as low level moisture moisture increases.

Thursday, surface high pressure will shift south into the waters
off the southeast coast and extend a surface ridge axis westward
through SE GA and into the FL panhandle with more southeasterly
light steering flow that will bring the Atlantic seabreeze well
inland. Subsidence will again prevent any mention of Pops despite
stronger heating as a mid/upper level ridging from the southwest
Gulf of Mexico builds northeastward into the area which will help
raise high temperatures into the low 90s away from the coast with
the Atlantic seabreeze cooling the coast into the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mid/upper level ridge will extend from the Gulf of Mexico NE into
the FL peninsula and create hot conditions into this weekend as
the low level ridge axis sinks south into central FL Friday and
then to south FL over the weekend. Friday should be dry due to
the influence of the low level ridge just south of the area with
isolated to widely scattered T`storms developing this weekend as
a few shortwaves impulses travel eastward around the northern
periphery of the Gulf ridge. The Atlantic seabreeze will remain
east of I-95 as low level steering flow becomes more southwesterly
and allow highs to reach the mid 90s east of highway 301 and
low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will climb to around
100 degrees as rising dewpoints mix out only to the upper 60s to
near 70 in the afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday.

A more organized shortwave will race east across the deep south
next Monday ahead of a deepening trough over the central US.
Better southwest flow aloft will bump up moisture levels to above
normal 1.4-1.6 inches with scattered T`storm coverage in place.
Highs next Monday will again be in the mid 90s east of highway 301
with heat index values rising a bit into the 100-104 degrees from
the coast to the St Johns river basin and north central FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

MVFR CIGS already pushing onshore to the Atlantic Coast ahead of
trough over the coastal waters and will bring VCSH to all sites
through the morning hours with a slight increase in NE winds to
10-13G15-21 knots through the afternoon hours. CIGS will likely
lift upwards to VFR at inland TAF sites but remain close to 3000
ft at the coastal TAF sites through the afternoon. Rainfall
chances still too low to include any TEMPO groups at this time but
may be needed at SGJ as any heavier showers approach. Shower
activity and clouds fade quickly around sunset (00Z) along with
diminishing winds and expect VFR conds through the evening hours.
With winds becoming calm at inland sites overnight expect at least
some MVFR fog likely at VQQ and possible at GNV/JAX towards
sunrise late in the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Northeasterly flow will decrease some Today and Wednesday with high
pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high
shifts well E of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday,
winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds
are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through
Saturday.

.Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  61  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  80  70  83  71 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  83  66  87  68 /  30  10   0   0
SGJ  83  69  85  69 /  40  10   0   0
GNV  87  65  90  67 /  40  10  10   0
OCF  89  66  91  68 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$