Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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014 FXUS62 KJAX 221253 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 853 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 847 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Areas of dense fog over inland areas quickly dissipating and will leave mostly sunny skies for most areas, except for some low level clouds pushing onto the SE GA coastal areas and this pool of extra moisture will likely be the initiation of some isolated showers along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves inland across SE GA with rainfall chances around 20%, while a slightly drier airmass aloft across NE FL will keep rainfall chances around 10% with the inland moving East coast sea breeze. Max temps will push into the middle 80s along the Atlantic Coastal areas before the sea breeze pushes inland and reach into the upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and across most of SE GA, while abundant sunshine across inland NE FL should lead to Max temps around 90 degrees. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low stratus and patchy to areas of fog will develop until just after sunrise with light easterly winds a bit higher at the coast 8-12 mph and 5-10 mph inland as weak high pressure ridging settles across the Atlantic waters just east of the GA coast. A few brief, transient showers may develop along the westward moving Atlantic seabreeze, especially west of highway 301 where some stronger low level instability will be located, but by and large dry air aloft and subsidence will prevent organized shower development through this afternoon and overnight. Highs will be warmer by a few degrees compared to Tuesday with upper 80s inland to around 90 over north central FL and mid 80s at the coast. Tonight, skies will begin mostly clear with low stratus and patchy fog developing late. Lows will be near to a bit above normal with mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Upper level ridge will be over the forecast area during this period, leading to dry conditions with a warming trend. High temperatures Thursday will be 85-90 east of I-95 corridor to the coast, lower 90s further inland. High temperatures Friday will be in the lower- mid 90s inland, upper 80s coast...above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Upper level ridge over the area will be flattened by shortwaves passing over GA and the Carolinas this Weekend. These waves could bring small rain chances to our forecast area, with better chances N of the area. A significant pattern change occurs Mon-Wed as intense upper trough develops over the eastern U.S...bringing greater rain chances Tue-Wed. Latest consensus guidance keeps above normal temperatures for the area Mon-Tue, with somewhat lower temperatures Wed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The 12Z TAF period will begin with MVFR/IFR restrictions from low stratus and fog that will quickly lift to VFR by 13Z with some broken MVFR ceilings at 3.0 kft sticking around VQQ and GNV for the extent of the morning. Dry conditions thereafter with easterly winds up to 8-12 knots as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland with decreasing cloud cover this afternoon behind the seabreeze as high pressure sinks east of SSI. Winds turn southeasterly after sunset and then turn calm inland where MVFR fog/low stratus is possible at GNV VQQ late tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Today, high pressure ridging will shift into the Southeast Georgia waters with easterly light winds, then shift into the Northeast Florida waters Thursday with southerly winds turning southeasterly and increasing nearshore due to the Atlantic seabreeze circulation which will continue each afternoon from Friday through the weekend. Winds will become more southwesterly early next week with storm chances increasing as a cold front approaches form the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Thursday for all area beaches. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Today, high pressure ridging will shift into the Southeast Georgia waters with easterly light winds, then shift into the Northeast Florida waters Thursday with southerly winds turning southeasterly and increasing nearshore due to the Atlantic seabreeze circulation which will continue each afternoon from Friday through the weekend. Winds will become more southwesterly early next week with storm chances increasing as a cold front approaches form the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Thursday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 66 91 70 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 83 71 85 72 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 88 67 91 70 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 86 68 88 71 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 91 65 92 68 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 93 66 93 69 / 10 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$