209
FXUS62 KJAX 161723
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
123 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A frontal boundary continues to slowly drift south of the region
early this morning, currently draped over southern counties as of
06Z. Some areas of lower clouds have developed in these areas, but
should dissipate by sunrise as the front finally clears the
region. Mostly sunny skies and generally high pressure will
dominate our weather today. The gradient should be just strong
enough to limit the sea breeze to just right near the immediate
coast. Given that the front is more or less a moisture boundary,
temps will be slightly above average as high pressure starts to
build aloft as well - in the upper 80s to low 90s.

A weak pressure gradient and a lack of any significant cloud cover
will allow us to drop to near average temps overnight, generally
mid to upper 60s and near to low 70s near the coast and St. Johns
River. Some higher clouds will start to fill in later in the
night, though we will remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Friday...Moisture levels increase in low level SW flow ahead of
next weather system, but not enough to kick off anything more than
isolated showers/storms by the afternoon hours as sea breeze
fronts push inland from both coasts late in the day, but not
before Max temps reach the lower 90s for most inland locations and
mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast.

Friday Night...Warm and muggy conditions expected ahead of next
weather system as SW flow remains elevated during the overnight
hours and low temps only fall into the lower/middle 70s. Some pre-
frontal showers and storms may impact portions of inland SE GA at
times, but overall mostly dry conditions are expected.

Saturday and Saturday Night...Models in better agreement with slow
moving frontal boundary being pushed across the region with best
rainfall chances across SE GA Saturday afternoon, then into NE FL
by the evening hours with activity continuing during the overnight
hours as frontal boundary ends up across NE FL by sunrise Sunday
morning. Timing of the frontal boundary later in the day will
allow for maximum daytime heating as breezy SW flow at 15-20G30
mph will keep the Atlantic Sea Breeze pinned at the coast and push
Max temps into the lower 90s all the way to the beaches, along
with peak heat indices into the 100-105F range for some NE FL
locations. This heating will supply enough instability for strong
to severe storms with damaging winds as the main threat and the
slow movement of the frontal boundary will lead to a heavy
rainfall threat, especially across inland SE GA/Suwannee River
Valley where wet soils from the last rainfall event will led to
better chances for localized flooding. Low temps fall into the
upper 60s behind the front across SE GA, while another warm and
muggy night is expected across NE FL with lows in the lower to
middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Sunday...Digging mid level trough through the SE US states and
trailing moisture behind the frontal boundary may still lead to
some lingering scattered showers and storms across the region, but
confidence in this scenario is only low to moderate as not enough
lingering deep moisture may be available and rainfall chances may
end up lower than currently forecast by the model blends and
Sunday afternoon may end with clearing skies and breezy West winds
with temps at slightly lower values in the upper 80s/near 90
degrees than previous days.

Monday/Tuesday...Amplifying mid level trough off the Carolinas
and associated surface low pressure development has trended the
forecast cooler and drier as a North Flow on Monday and Northeast
Flow on Tuesday will hold Max temps down closer to normal values
in the middle/upper 80s with coolest values across SE GA and the
Atlantic Coastal areas. While some coastal showers will be
possible, overall rainfall chances will be lower than normal this
period as well as lows falling into the 60s over inland areas.

Wednesday...Long range models have high pressure ridging building
back into the region at the surface and aloft which will keep dry
conditions on track, but Max temps will push back into the lower
90s over inland areas with more light/variable winds, while the
East Coast sea breeze will keep Atlantic Coastal areas cooler in
the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions with west-northwesterly winds around 10 kts prevail
today. The Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned to the coast and
struggle to shift inland. Winds at SGJ will shift to southeasterly
around 21Z with the sea breeze. Another round of inland patchy
fog will be possible during the pre-dawn hours on Friday for GNV
and VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A frontal boundary clears area waters to the south this morning,
with a ridge of high pressure settling in through Friday. A sea
breeze is expected to form by Friday as the pressure gradient
relaxes. Associated high pressure shifts from the northeast to
east of area waters this weekend as another frontal system
approaches. The system will remain in the vicinity of the region
through at least Monday, returning chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Another ridge looks to build in from the north by
Monday.

Rip Currents: Offshore flow will lead to a Low Risk today, while a
stronger sea breeze on Friday will lead to a Moderate Risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  89  71  88 /   0  20  30  80
SSI  72  84  74  87 /   0  10  10  60
JAX  68  92  72  93 /   0   0  10  50
SGJ  69  90  72  92 /   0   0   0  40
GNV  66  91  71  91 /   0  10   0  60
OCF  66  92  72  92 /   0  10   0  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$