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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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548 FXUS62 KJAX 301041 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 641 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Broad low level troughing extends across the Carolinas and GA today while low level Atlantic ridge axis remains across the southern FL peninsula. Mean layer flow remains weak enough that the west and east coast sea breezes will develop and push inland during the peak heating of the day. Once again, PWATs are higher than normal with JAX sounding from 00z registering 2.31 inches. There is some weak forcing aloft, mainly for northeast FL, as the mid/upper level high is located over LA while weak mid level perturbations rotate southward over the region. Have generally 60-80 percent POPs, with some strong storms possible with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The main axis of heavier rainfall is noted parts of inland northeast FL south of I-10. Some localized flooding is possible. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices meeting heat advy criteria for a time over parts of southeast GA where a heat advy has been posted. Other locations may see brief heat indices near 105-108, but not enough confidence now to post additional advisories. Tonight, the broad low level trough over the Carolinas and GA will shift a bit southward, with weak embedded sfc low around 1013 mb forming near Macon GA. Guidance shows scattered to numerous storms inland, mainly west of Highway 301. Specifically, an axis of heavy precip is indicated from around Alma southward to just south of Lake City and Live Oak. Localized flooding is certainly possible. WPC has indicated a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for these areas. Activity will slowly wind down overnight. However, after midnight, lingering precip is still expected with a few showers and possibly a couple of storms. Lows will be in the lower to mainly mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A cold front pressing down from out of the north is expected to stall over Georgia by Tuesday with stronger convection developing ahead of the frontal boundary with a potential for severe thunderstorms forming on Monday over southeast Georgia and adjacent Florida counties. Deep-layer moisture with PWAT values rising to be about 2.25 to 2.75 inches ahead of the front will result in storms capable of producing heavy rainfall with a potential for localized flooding. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will be in the 90s for most inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast and for areas behind the frontal boundary. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s along the coastline. Heat advisory conditions may be possible on Monday and Tuesday as heat index levels rise to 108 and above during peak daytime heating. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Convection will become relatively less widespread as the week continues as drier air associated with the weakening front moves to cover the forecast area with the prevailing flow becomes more out of the north and northeast as high pressure shifts further eastward. Daily high temperatures are expected to experience a warming trend through the week with max temps rising into the upper 90s going into the weekend. Potential for heat advisory conditions will continue and become more likely by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A moist airmass will lead to diurnal showers and storms today, mostly starting up around 18z and continuing into the evening hours. Highest chances generally around GNV in the aftn. TEMPO groups currently set for 18-23z time frame for sites with convective developments forming in vicinity afterwards. Sfc winds will be light and will allow the east coast sea breeze to develop at SSI, CRG, and SGJ this afternoon and then become more light and variable for sites overnight and into Monday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Westerly winds start out today light at about 5-10 kt. With a developing east coast sea breeze, winds will shift to the south or southeast later this afternoon. Winds will then increase to 10-15 knots and gusty by this evening, as the pressure gradient increases as a trough of low pressure presses down over GA and the Carolinas. A weak front will slowly drop southward over the southeast states early next week, and may enter our GA waters late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. This will begin a trend of more southeasterly flow by Tue and Wed. Seas have shown a slight upward trend over the past 1-2 days but still remain about 2-3 ft today/tonight. Winds and seas may trend a bit upward by Wed. Rip Currents: Given a slight upward trend in surf and a near midday low tide, a low-end moderate risk is posted again today. A dominant easterly swell/wind-sea continues at 9-10 seconds with small wind waves of 1-2 ft, suggesting the moderate rip current risk, which may persist on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 76 93 74 / 60 60 80 50 SSI 92 79 90 78 / 60 30 60 60 JAX 94 76 93 75 / 70 40 60 40 SGJ 92 75 93 77 / 60 30 50 40 GNV 92 74 92 74 / 70 40 60 30 OCF 92 75 93 75 / 80 50 70 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-165-166-264. AM...None. && $$