Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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366 FXUS62 KJAX 220646 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Ongoing light showers Saturday morning along the coast will give way to scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as the tropical airmass, diurnal instability and Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes interact. Highs will reach the lower 90s over most of NE FL and inland SE GA, with slightly cooler temperatures near the Georgia coast due to increased cloud cover from the weak tropical low. Activity will linger for a few hours after sunset over northeast Florida, low temperatures will stay mild in the 70s area-wide. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 During this period, we`ll have an upper ridge of high pressure centered over the western Gulf Coast states, while an upper trough remains stationary just offshore of the FL/GA coastline...with northwest flow aloft over the forecast area. At the surface, we`ll have daily sea breeze interactions generating scattered to numerous showers and storms, with greater coverage across NE FL compared to SE GA each day. A warming trend is expected as 850mb temperatures rise from around 18C today to 21-22C Sunday and Monday, likely to translate to above normal high temperatures in the mid 90s inland, near 90 coast Sunday, with mid-upper 90s inland Monday, lower 90s coast...a few locations in interior SE GA could peak around 100 degrees. Afternoon heat index values each day will likely be in the 100-105 range. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The upper pattern changes little until Wednesday Night and Thursday when an upper trough digs SE toward our forecast area, with the ECM a bit more intense with trough than the GFS, a reverse of what was shown by models 24hrs earlier. Both models leave behind an upper low over the region, with the ECM positioning it over the forecast area Friday, while the GFS has it over the nrn Gulf of Mexico. Regardless, with a moist environment in place, and active sea breezes with above normal inland temps, expecting to see scattered to numerous showers/storms each afternoon. Above normal high and low temperatures will continue Tuesday and Wednesday...with some areas particularly in interior SE GA seeing high temperatures near 100 degrees.... and with afternoon heat index values of 100-105 each day. Current consensus guidance maintains above normal temperatures right through Friday, but could end up close to normal if the ECM pattern verifies. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 MVFR ceilings will continue to impact all the TAF sites except GNV through the morning, with ceilings lifting to VFR levels in the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will develop across NE FL and SE GA this afternoon, PROB30s in place for best guess on timing of impacts for the TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Strong high pressure to the northeast will weaken and shift towards Bermuda this weekend with decreasing winds and seas with a more typical summer sea breeze-like pattern returning into early next week. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over our local waters this weekend and into next week as prevailing winds become southerly ahead of a weakening surface trough that will settle over the southeastern states through midweek. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA beaches as winds shift more southerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 73 95 75 / 60 30 50 10 SSI 86 76 92 78 / 70 60 70 20 JAX 89 74 93 75 / 70 60 80 20 SGJ 89 75 92 76 / 70 70 80 30 GNV 94 73 93 73 / 70 50 80 10 OCF 94 74 94 75 / 60 50 80 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT early this morning for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$