Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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580 FXUS62 KJAX 160138 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 938 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Overall forecast is on track this evening as thunderstorms are quickly waning west of I-75 towards the Gulf coast. After leftover anvil debris clouds clear over NE FL, skies will be mostly clear with patchy fog possible along the US17 corridor towards US301 and along the Altamaha river basin. Light east southeast winds at the coast will turn calm inland after midnight. Lows will fall to the lower 70s over the interior with mid and upper 70s closer to the coast. High pressure will build to the northeast on Sunday with the local pressure gradient beginning to tighten some, leading to elevated onshore easterly winds 10-20 mph behind a quick moving Atlantic seabreeze. Expect convection to develop again over the southern St Johns river basin into north central FL as the Atlantic seabreeze pushes far inland with stronger T`storm potential near I-75 as it encounters and merges with the Gulf coast seabreeze with some wind gusts up to 40-50 mph and brief heavy downpours as the main impacts. Highs will be a little less hot with low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to near 90 along the beaches and coastal communities. Storms should fade west of I-75 an hour after sunset. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf East coast sea breeze has pushed through the First Coast counties of NE FL producing a few showers near the western Flagler and eastern Putnam county border this early afternoon. The east coast sea breeze will continue to push westward toward I-75 meeting up with the Gulf seabreeze where showers will be scattered to numerous the later part of the afternoon. Surface high pressure over the OH/TN River Valley this afternoon will transition to just offshore of New England on Sunday. This will allow a continued easterly flow across the region, with slightly higher winds on Sunday, with breezy conditions on the beaches. Very similar scenario as today where most favorable area for convection will near the I-75 corridor where the east coast sea breeze is anticipated to meet up with the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze for best moisture convergence. A mainly clear night is forecast for tonight. High res models do show some patchy fog near the Altamaha River Basin during the pre-dawn hours. Above normal temperatures are forecast this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, with mid 90s common inland. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the area tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Easterly winds will begin to build on Sunday as high pressure builds near the Carolina`s, and with a dissipating front over Georgia/South Carolina, enough moisture will be in place for an increase in precipitation potential. The east coast sea breeze will be able to make it`s way westward, with the I-75 corridor being highlighted for numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs will reach the upper 80s along the coast, and 90s inland. Similar high temperatures forecast for Monday, with scattered shower and thunderstorm potential continuing as onshore winds of 15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 10-20 mph over inland areas persist. Mild low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights, staying in the 70s area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Each day during this period will have a very similar forecast. High pressure to the northeast will promote elevated onshore flow, keeping high temperatures along the coast in the mid to upper 80s, with inland highs reaching the lower 90s, close to near normal temperatures. Showers over the Atlantic will move onshore, with a slight uptick in coverage each day, and the east coast sea breeze will be able to push inland in the afternoons. Scattered to numerous showers expected each day, with highest thunderstorm chances in the afternoon/evenings over NE FL with sea breeze interactions and ample diurnal heating. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mostly VFR conditions throughout the 00Z TAF period into Sunday. Thunderstorms will wane near GNV by 01Z with the loss of heating and some drier air aloft with few to scattered low level clouds and some leftover anvil clouds through 04Z-05Z. Winds will remain east southeasterly along the coast 5-8 knots tonight and turning calm inland after 05Z with some patchy fog that may bring MVFR level visibility restrictions at GNV and VQQ until 11Z-12Z. High pressure to the north overnight will build more to the northeast on Sunday and light easterly winds 5-8 knots after sunrise will become breezy with VCTS at GNV and VQQ after 17Z-18Z as Atlantic seabreeze moves inland with VCSH posted at CRG, JAX, and SGJ. Drier conditions will resume at the duval and coastal sites after 21Z with still breezy easterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure will build to the north through Tonight, then shift to the northeast Sunday. High pressure will remain centered to the northeast through the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged period of onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible around the middle of the week. Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend for NE FL and SE GA beaches, potential for high risk early this week as onshore winds build. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Easterly flow will prevail through the weekend and much of next week with high pressure to our north transitioning to well northeast of the region. This weekend the best chances of convection will occur along the I-75 corridor where scattered to numerous showers are anticipated. High dispersions will reside near the Altamaha River, interior southeast Georgia and northern Suwannee Valley Sunday afternoon. Min RH values across interior SE GA Sunday afternoon will be in the 35 to 40 percent range during peak heating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 95 72 93 / 0 10 0 20 SSI 77 88 78 87 / 0 10 10 40 JAX 74 91 74 89 / 0 20 10 40 SGJ 74 89 77 88 / 10 20 20 50 GNV 73 92 71 92 / 30 50 10 40 OCF 73 92 72 92 / 40 60 10 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$