651
FXUS62 KJAX 150608
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
208 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

MVFR ceilings will prevail through the TAF period at the SSI and
SGJ coastal terminals. Ceilings at the inland terminals will lower
to MVFR during the overnight and predawn hours, with periods of
IFR conditions expected at GNV around sunrise through the early
morning hours. IFR conditions will also be possible at VQQ during
the early morning hours, but confidence was too low to include in
the overnight TAF package. Ceilings at GNV should lift to MVFR by
14Z. Showers will increase in coverage over the Atlantic waters
adjacent to southeast GA during the early to mid-morning hours,
with activity likely impacting the SSI terminal during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. A PROB30 group was placed in
the SSI TAF for wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR conditions
during heavier downpours. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
will then shift over the northeast FL terminals during the
afternoon hours. PROB30 groups for wind gusts up to 30 knots and
MVFR conditions during heavier downpours were placed in these TAFs
during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Ceilings may lift to VFR
towards sunset on Sunday evening at the inland terminals.
Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots
overnight at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, and around 5 knots
at the inland terminals. Surface winds will shift to north-
northeasterly towards sunrise, with sustained  speeds increasing
to 15-20 knots by early afternoon at the coastal terminals and
10-15 knots and gusty at the inland terminals.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Boundary will remain stalled over area Tonight, as an area of low
pressure develops on this boundary just east of coastal waters.
Convection is expected to weaken and decrease in coverage this
evening, with loss of diurnal heating. The boundary will continue
to be a focus though for showers through the night, along with
cloud cover. Lows away from the immediate coast will be in the
lower 70s, with mid 70s at beach communities.

Patchy fog will also be possible toward dawn.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The frontal boundary will remain draped across the Florida
peninsula through the forecast period. Meanwhile an associated
area of low pressure over the gulf stream will gradually develop
(NHC now indicating a 30% chance of development in the next 48
hours) and is expected to move towards the coast of the Carolinas.
Breezy northeasterly winds, due to local pressure gradient
tightening further, will bring gusty conditions for coastal
locations as wind gusts of up to 20 mph will be possible.
Convergence along the frontal boundary, and upper energy from the
remnants of Francine will support daily showers and embedded
thunderstorms, but dry air moving into the area will likely
limited some development on Sunday.

Warmer daytime temperatures for our north central Florida counties
as temperatures will rise to the lower 90s, as the rest of the
area will see temperatures from the low to upper 80s. Overnight
lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Above average PWATs for mid-September continue Tuesday into
Wednesday as a front remains stalled over northern Florida,
keeping rain chances likely over northeast Florida both days with
slightly lower chances over southeast Georgia. Thursday, the front
will begin to dissipate as steering flow shifts northwesterly,
bringing in drier air. PWATs near climatology (1.5-1.8") will move
in lowering precipitation potential area-wide, with chances maxing
out at 30-40% near the most southern counties Thursday and Friday,
with inland areas potentially staying rain-free. Temperatures will
be just at or below normal next week, with highs ranging from the
lower 80s to upper 80s, and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

High pressure centered off the New England coast will be
reinforced by a stronger high pressure center on Sunday, with this
feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard through early
portions of the upcoming week. Meanwhile, low pressure will
develop over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to the southeastern
seaboard on Sunday, with this system potentially acquiring
tropical characteristics early in the upcoming week as it moves
northwestward towards the Carolina coast. Otherwise, a stationary
frontal boundary will remain situated just south of our local
waters through midweek, bringing episodes of showers and
thunderstorms.

Strengthening northeasterly winds and building seas will bring
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the offshore Georgia waters
this afternoon, where wind speeds will increase to around 20
knots, with seas building to Caution levels of 4-6 feet this
afternoon and then 5-7 feet tonight. Caution conditions are expected
for the near shore Georgia waters this afternoon, as wind speeds
increase to 15-20 knots and seas build to 3-5 feet this afternoon,
building further to 4-6 feet tonight. Small Craft Advisory
conditions will then overspread to local waters north of St.
Augustine by Sunday and Sunday night as northeasterly winds
continue to strengthen and seas build. Seas will peak in the 7-10
foot range offshore on Monday and Monday night, with 5-7 foot seas
near shore. Winds and seas will then gradually diminish towards
midweek as low pressure pivots northward across the coastal
Carolinas and moves towards the Mid- Atlantic states.

Rip Currents: Increasing northeasterly flow will lead to a high
risk of rip currents for all area beaches through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  68  80  67 /  50  20  40  20
SSI  81  72  82  71 /  60  40  40  30
JAX  82  72  82  71 /  60  40  60  30
SGJ  86  74  86  73 /  50  30  60  30
GNV  87  71  86  70 /  50  10  60  10
OCF  90  72  90  71 /  30  10  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ033-
     038-132-137-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ452-454-474.

&&

$$