296
FXUS62 KJAX 190047
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
847 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Not much change to the forecast this evening, with the main
adjustment being POPs. Showers should continue to stream onshore
for at least the next few hours, and will continue to do so closer
to the coast through the rest of the night. Mild tonight with
lows in the low 70s inland and mid to upper 70s near the St. Johns
River and coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The region will remain between strong high pressure off the coast
of New England and strengthening Potential Tropical Cyclone One in
the SW Gulf. This setup has supported gusty easterly flow with
gusts this afternoon ranging from 25-38 MPH. Dry airmass (PWAT
1-1.3 in.) and prevailing subsidence has limited shower
development so far today. However, continuous onshore flow has
gradually begun to increase low-level moisture along the Atlantic
coast which could sustain some showers that move onshore later
this afternoon into evening. Winds will be slow to subside
overnight and will remain breezy along the coast. Overnight lows
will range in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Breezy conditions along coastal sites will continue through
midweek as high pressure remains situated towards the north-
northeast of the area. Coastal sites will see gusts of up to
25-30 mph. The onshore winds will also see an increase in shower
chances along the coast as moisture moves inland from the coast.
Daytime temperatures will run on the cooler side of normal as the
cool marine air will keep temperature values in the mid to upper
80s along coastal locations towards US-301 in NE FL, with far
inland locations in the lower to mid 90s.

By Thursday evening, a tropical wave currently situated to the
east of the Bahamas will begin to near the FL coast. NHC has a 10%
of chance of further development over the next 48 hours. An increase
in rain chances will begin during the early hours on Friday and
through the day as the feature treks across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As the tropical wave feature starts to fizzle out and/or become
more diffuse over the region, high pressure planted to our north
and east for much of the week finally starts to broaden a bit and
track further to our north and east through much of this period.
This should generally result in weaker surface ridging and
therefore a weaker pressure gradient compared to what will be seen
for most of this week, with also a more southeasterly flow. This
is expected to bring closer to a more typical summertime
convective pattern for the upcoming weekend and into early next
week. Therefore expecting a moderation of temperatures through
this period, starting near to slightly below average on Friday and
trending towards near to above average by the end of the weekend
and the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Breezy onshore winds will tend to ease for all terminals
overnight, though expected to remain above 10 kts for coastal
sites. Any chances for SHRA will be very low over inland areas
overnight, and have only included VCSH for SSI and SGJ. Areas of
lower stratus are expected to linger through the overnight hours
as well, but are expected to stay predominantly at VFR levels.
MVFR cannot be ruled out at times overnight however, with the best
chance of this being at SSI and SGJ.

Similar conditions as seen today will be expected for Wednesday.
Onshore winds expected to gust in the 25 to 30 kt range, and could
exceed 30 kt at times. Areas of SHRA are also expected for all
terminals during the day on Wednesday, with TSRA very unlikely.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong high pressure will remain anchored off coastal New England
through Thursday maintaining small craft advisory conditions
across the coastal waters. Easterly winds 15-20 knots and seas
building to 6 to 8 feet will continue through Thursday. Meanwhile,
a trough situated to the northeast of the Bahamas will be steered
westward towards the southeastern seaboard late this week, with
weak low pressure possibly developing as this system traverses the
Gulf Stream waters. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage late this week and through the upcoming
weekend across our local waters. High pressure will weaken late
this week as it sinks slowly southward towards Bermuda, with the
axis of this surface ridge extending across our area during the
upcoming weekend. Winds and seas will gradually diminish as
prevailing winds shift to southeasterly on Saturday and then
southerly by Sunday.

Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of
rip currents this week with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft today building
to 4-6 ft on Wednesday/Thursday. With the approach of the full
moon later this week, water levels will start to run above normal
but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the onshore
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  88  69  90 /  20  20  10  20
SSI  76  86  77  86 /  20  50  40  40
JAX  73  87  73  86 /  20  50  40  50
SGJ  76  87  75  86 /  20  60  70  50
GNV  71  90  72  89 /  20  40  20  40
OCF  74  90  74  91 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$