774
FXUS62 KJAX 181142
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
742 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Periods of MVFR ceilings between 2,000 and 3,000 feet will remain
possible through the period at the northeast FL terminals, mainly
as fast moving showers briefly move overhead. VFR conditions will
prevail through at least 19Z at SSI before lower stratocumulus
ceilings and the potential for showers increases during the late
afternoon and evening hours. TEMPO groups were added at the Duval
County terminals and SGJ from the late morning through the late
afternoon hours, where a higher chance for sustained MVFR
conditions and shower activity exists. A TEMPO group for MVFR
conditions was also added at SSI for the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Prevailing MVFR conditions are then expected at
the regional terminals during the predawn hours on Wednesday as
stratocumulus continues to stream onshore from the Atlantic
waters. Easterly surface winds will quickly increase after 13Z
this morning, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-20 knots and
gusty. Sustained speeds at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals will
likely climb to near 20 knots after 18Z, and any passing shower
activity could produce gusts in excess of 30 knots through early
this evening. Winds will be slow to subside overnight at the
coastal terminals and will generally remain sustained around 15
knots, while speeds at the inland terminals decrease to 5-10 knots
after 06Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Deep layer onshore flow will continue a breezy Easterly winds
through the near term period with scattered showers moving onshore
at times through tonight with an isolated thunderstorm not out of
the question. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal
with highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper 80s
along the I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland
areas. Easterly winds will increase during the daytime hours to
sustained at 15-25 mph with peak gusts into the 30-40 mph range,
likely remaining just below Wind Advisory levels. The onshore flow
will continue a high risk of rip currents and rough surf of 3-5 ft
will develop but Coastal Flooding is not expected at this time.
Winds diminish over inland areas tonight with the Easterly flow
will remain breezy along the Atlantic Coast with continued
scattered showers pushing onshore into the Atlantic Coastal areas
at least as far inland to the US 17 corridor and the St. Johns
River Basin through the night. Lows temps will fall into the upper
60s/near 70 across inland SE GA and lower 70s across inland NE FL,
with the onshore flow keeping the Atlantic Coastal areas warm and
muggy in the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Surface high pressure ridge will be centered to the northeast
through Thursday. This pattern will continue the onshore flow. Weak
waves will move west through the flow, leading to enhanced winds,
especially at the coast. These weak waves will also be responsible
for helping to generate showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms
during the heating of the afternoons on Wednesday and Thursday.

On Thursday night, the high to the northeast will weaken and move
further away to the northeast, as an inverted trough moves west
toward the east coast of FL. Shower chances will continue into
Thursday night, along with elevated and gusty winds.

Due to the onshore flow, high temperatures will be below normal,
while lows run near to a little above.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Weakening inverted trough will move west across area Friday through
Friday night, as high builds further away to the northeast.

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east northeast
Saturday through Monday. This pattern will result in a flow more
from the south southeast. This is a more moist flow pattern.
Expecting greater than normal precipitation chances throughout this
period.

After a near normal temperature day on Friday, the rest of this
period will trend above.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Small Craft Advisories will develop across the waters with
Easterly winds around 20 knots and seas building to 6 to 8 feet
and remaining this way through Thursday as the Easterly/Tropical
wave pushes into the coastal waters Thursday Night or Early
Friday, then winds will shift to the Southeast following the wave
by this weekend with a decrease in wind speeds to 10-15 knots and
slowly subsiding seas below headline levels.

Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of
rip currents this week with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft today will
build to 4-6 ft on Wednesday/Thursday. With the approach of the
full moon later this week, water levels will start to run above
normal but coastal flooding is not expected at this time in the
onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  69  88  69 /  20  20  20  10
SSI  85  76  86  77 /  30  30  60  30
JAX  88  73  87  73 /  40  30  70  30
SGJ  87  76  87  76 /  40  30  80  60
GNV  91  72  90  71 /  20  20  50  20
OCF  92  73  91  73 /  20  30  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$