410
FXUS62 KJAX 211747
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
147 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The low pressure system (AL92 per NHC) continues to push west-northwest
about 15 mph, located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville. The
system has a chance to into a tropical depression but has a short
window as it is expected to move ashore late today. At this time,
it is not well organized as far as convection. Not much change in
the impacts regardless as we still have enhanced chances of
showers and possible scattered thunderstorms later today. The
airmass is plenty moist, in fact at the high-end of climatology
for PWAT at about 2.07 inches on the JAX sounding. Deep layer
moisture extends to 16 kft...so plenty of moisture to produce
locally heavy rainfall wherever showers or storms persist or
congeal this aftn. The best chance of heavy rainfall is across
parts of northeast FL. Breezy northeast winds expected for eastern
zones at 15-20 mph, with gusts to about 30 mph at times.
Potentially higher gusts around 35-40 mph in shower or t-storm
activity.

On the marine forecast, essentially little change with small
craft advisories remaining in effect. Current wave and wind
guidance pretty much on track with observations with slight both
for seas and winds. Have extended the SCA for offshore GA waters
into tonight based on seas of about 7 ft.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Invest 92-L is about 200 miles away from Jacksonville, and will
continue to move towards the northeast Florida / southeast Georgia
coast, with little time to organize further. There remains
potential (50% chance) of this system developing into a short-
lived Tropical Depression early this morning before making
landfall in the late morning/early afternoon hours. Despite
Tropical Depression formation or not, hazards will remain the
same, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal impacts including
rough surf, high rip currents, and minor beach erosion during high
tide. Areas that have not received rainfall recently will see
beneficial rainfall totals around 1-2" along and east of I-95
today, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind gusts are likely
to stay below Wind Advisory today, with onshore gusts reaching
around 30 mph.

High temperatures will be a tad below normal for areas along and
east of US-301, staying in the mid to upper 80s. West of US-301
will see highs in the lower 90s. Scattered showers will remain
overnight along the east coast, with winds subsiding after sunset.
Mild low temperatures forecast, only falling into the 70s area-
wide with warmest lows on the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper level ridge will be centered over the Gulf Coast states
well west of our forecast area during this period. This supports
near normal temperatures during the period, with scattered to
numerous showers and t-storms with sea breeze interactions each
day. High temperatures will be in the 90-95 range inland each day,
with afternoon heat index values near 100, and upper 80s
immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Upper level ridge will shift eastward over the forecast area
Tuesday and east of the area Wednesday, with an upper trough
possibly moving over the area Thursday. Considerable uncertainty
exists with strength and timing of this trough, with GFS more
intense over the area compared to the ECM. Latest consensus
guidance more in line with ECM in showing not much cooling
Thursday with little reflection of a frontal passage. As a result,
consensus guidance shows above normal temperatures the entire
upcoming work week.

Latest guidance suggests a fairly wet pattern for our area with
daily bouts of scattered/numerous showers and t-storms with sea
breeze interactions in moist environment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR and MVFR ceilings expected to persist next 24 hours as weak
low pressure system just offshore northeast FL moves ashore by
tonight. Occasional low vsby expected and have VCSH and TEMPO
groups for the convection. TSRA probabilities expected to rise
and peak by 21z/22z, and then fade. We can`t rule out some brief
IFR chances late tonight and tonight. Expect more scattered TSRA
on Saturday. Gusty northeast winds will continue along the coastal
TAFs and will slowly diminish and back to the north as the low
moves ashore.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Weak low pressure situated about 200 miles to the east-southeast
of Jacksonville, Florida early Friday morning may organize into a
Tropical Depression later this morning as it progresses west-
northwestward across the Gulf Stream waters. Bands of gusty
showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in frequency and
intensity during the predawn hours on Friday, with this activity
continuing through late Friday afternoon before diminishing in
coverage as this weak low pressure center progresses inland.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure centered north of Bermuda will
gradually weaken as it settles southward this weekend. Small Craft
Advisory conditions will continue throughout our local waters
tonight and Friday, followed by winds and seas diminishing to
Caution levels on Friday night and then below Caution criteria on
Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop over our local waters this weekend and into next week as
prevailing winds become southerly ahead of a weakening surface
trough that will settle over the southeastern states through
midweek.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk and rough surf continues
today for NE FL and SE GA beaches as elevated onshore winds
persist. Moderate risk will be in place on Saturday as winds
subside.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024...updated

The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk of excessive
rainfall Saturday, as locally heavy rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches will be possible along the Interstate 95 corridor as Invest
92-L impacts our region with bands of heavy downpours. Rainfall
amounts further inland will likely remain below one inch. Rainfall
will be mostly beneficial, but there will be concerns for
flooding at urban locations where rain bands train repeatedly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  73  94 /  20  80  30  60
SSI  78  87  76  91 /  60  80  60  70
JAX  74  91  73  93 /  50  90  50  80
SGJ  76  91  75  92 /  60  90  60  80
GNV  73  92  72  92 /  60  90  40  80
OCF  74  94  74  93 /  60  90  40  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-
     452-454-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470.

&&

$$