145
FXUS62 KJAX 151811
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
211 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

This afternoon...Spoke of energy expected to rotate around the
west side of developing low pressure center off the SE US
coastline and push southward through SE GA and into the I-10
corridor of NE FL this afternoon and through the rest of NE FL
south of the I-10 corridor this evening. This will bring an uptick
in shower and isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon along
with increasing North to Northeast winds up to 15-20 mph along
the Atlantic Coastal areas with wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range
with lesser winds of 10-15 mph inland with gusts of 20-25 mph. A
mixture of low clouds near the surface along with high clouds
streaming in aloft will keep temps muted again today with highs in
the lower 80s across SE GA and in the middle 80s across NE FL and
these slightly below normal temps should keep any afternoon
thunderstorm activity isolated, but any of this activity could
still produce some heavy downpours, but movement should be
slightly higher today to prevent any significant flooding issues.

Tonight...The remainder of the spoke of energy should push
through NE FL during the evening hours which may continue
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity a few hours
past sunset. Otherwise expect decreasing rainfall chances and
diminishing winds over inland areas, although breezy North to
Northeast winds will continue through the night at Atlantic
beachfront locations. Skies will continue at mostly cloudy levels
and will prevent any significant fog formation, except for the
usual patchy fog over inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor. Low
temps in the upper 60s for inland SE GA, lower 70s for inland NE
FL and middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the southwest
during this period as low pressure off the coast drifts northward
towards the Carolinas. Drier air will be pulled over northeast
Florida by Tuesday night with PWAT values dropping from 2 inches
to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches which is expected to result in less
widespread convection by midweek, however potential for scattered
to numerous showers and storms capable of producing localized
heavy rainfall and flooding are still possible through the period.
High temperatures will gradually rise through the beginning of
the week with max temps rising into the mid 80s over southeast
Georgia and into the upper 80s for northeast Florida, by Tuesday.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The frontal boundary over the Florida peninsula will begin to
shift southward through the forecast period as the associated
upper level low begins to shift south along the eastern CONUS and
Atlantic waters. Drier air (PWATs 1.2" - 1.5") moves into the area
during the back half of the upcoming week as the upper level low
shifts south. Lower precipitation chances, with PoPs mainly in
the 45% to 60% range, on Wednesday will steadily drop to the 25%
to 45% range by the upcoming weekend. Daytime temperatures in the
upper 80s for latter half of the week, with highs getting to the
low to mid 80s by the weekend. Overnight lows in the upper 60s and
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Widespread MVFR CIGS will continue this afternoon with off and on
light rainfall chances that could bring MVFR VSBYS at times
through sunset, but again thunder chances still remain too low
(around 10% or less) to include in TAF sites. Meanwhile North to
Northeast winds have increased less than expected today, so will
back off some of the wind gusts at TAF sites through the rest of
the afternoon hours. Rainfall ends at the inland TAF sites of
GNV/VQQ after sunset, but low chances for showers (VCSH) linger at
coastal TAF sites through the overnight hours. With light North
winds developing overnight inland and some boundary layer cooling,
still on track for LIFR CIGS to develop by 09Z at GNV, and IFR
CIGS at VQQ, while MVFR CIGS will persist at all of the other TAF
sites. Slow lifting of CIGS at inland locations Monday morning to
MVFR CIGS, but overall widespread MVFR CIGS will persist at TAF
sites with a slow increase in Northeast winds along with rainfall
chances, but not much more than (VCSH) at best.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Low pressure will continue to organize over the Gulf Stream
waters adjacent to the Carolina coastline, with this feature
potentially acquiring tropical characteristics as it pushes
northward towards the Carolina coast on Monday night or early
Tuesday morning. Waves of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
will develop across our local waters through Monday night. Winds
will shift to northwesterly on Monday night while diminishing,
with seas then gradually diminishing through midweek. Otherwise, a
frontal boundary positioned across the Florida peninsula will
lift northward over the northeast Florida waters on Wednesday,
keeping chances for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
place. This front will then shift south of our local waters late
this week.

Rip Currents: High risk for all area beaches today and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  81  66  85 /  20  20  10  20
SSI  72  82  71  85 /  30  20  20  20
JAX  71  84  70  87 /  30  30  20  40
SGJ  73  85  73  87 /  30  40  20  40
GNV  71  85  69  88 /  20  50  30  40
OCF  71  87  71  90 /  20  50  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-132-
     137-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$