214
FXUS62 KJAX 160027
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
827 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

There are no substantial updates to the forecast this evening. A
stable airmass associated with a secondary frontal zone is being
slung southward by the low pressure (*Potential Tropical Cyclone
8*) gathering to the northeast. This boundary has slid past the
Altamaha River, denoted by a sharp drop in dewpoints from the mid
70s to the upper 60s and will continue southward. The stabilizing
airmass in its wake will limit the showery/drizzle activity across
the region, but spotty activity is still possible. Overcast skies
will keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s tonight and prevent
much in the way of any fog development.

A King Tide (higher astronomical tides) event combined with a
component of onshore flow will elevate tides along the Atlantic
coast tonight and over the next 24 hours. Trapped, elevated tides
within the St Johns River and Minor to low-end Moderate flooding
will continue through the week, particularly with the higher high
tides. Tidal levels will generally push between the 1-2 feet above
normally dry ground.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Tonight...The remainder of the spoke of energy should push
through NE FL during the evening hours which may continue
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity a few hours
past sunset. Otherwise expect decreasing rainfall chances and
diminishing winds over inland areas, although breezy North to
Northeast winds will continue through the night at Atlantic
beachfront locations. Skies will continue at mostly cloudy levels
and will prevent any significant fog formation, except for the
usual patchy fog over inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor. Low
temps in the upper 60s for inland SE GA, lower 70s for inland NE
FL and middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the southwest
during this period as low pressure off the coast drifts northward
towards the Carolinas. Drier air will be pulled over northeast
Florida by Tuesday night with PWAT values dropping from 2 inches
to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches which is expected to result in less
widespread convection by midweek, however potential for scattered
to numerous showers and storms capable of producing localized
heavy rainfall and flooding are still possible through the period.
High temperatures will gradually rise through the beginning of
the week with max temps rising into the mid 80s over southeast
Georgia and into the upper 80s for northeast Florida, by Tuesday.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The frontal boundary over the Florida peninsula will begin to
shift southward through the forecast period as the associated
upper level low begins to shift south along the eastern CONUS and
Atlantic waters. Drier air (PWATs 1.2" - 1.5") moves into the area
during the back half of the upcoming week as the upper level low
shifts south. Lower precipitation chances, with PoPs mainly in
the 45% to 60% range, on Wednesday will steadily drop to the 25%
to 45% range by the upcoming weekend. Daytime temperatures in the
upper 80s for latter half of the week, with highs getting to the
low to mid 80s by the weekend. Overnight lows in the upper 60s and
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS) Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A front will be slung southward by a weak tropical low pressure
gathering to the northeast. Waves of very light rain and drizzle
will continue with ceilings prevailing around 1-1.5 kft through
the rest of the evening. Ceilings will being to fall to IFR levels
after 06z, followed by improvements an hour or two after sunrise
Monday. Breezy north winds, with gusts hanging on through around
02z, will deter any potential for fog development. By 18z Monday,
stratus will lift toward VFR with clouds beginning to scatter out
with the passage of trailing post-frontal trough during the late
afternoon Monday. A few showers may develop at sites south of KJAX
Monday afternoon but instability appears too marginal to support
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Low pressure will continue to organize over the Gulf Stream
waters adjacent to the Carolina coastline, with this feature
potentially acquiring tropical characteristics as it pushes
northward towards the Carolina coast on Monday night or early
Tuesday morning. Waves of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
will develop across our local waters through Monday night. Winds
will shift to northwesterly on Monday night while diminishing,
with seas then gradually diminishing through midweek. Otherwise, a
frontal boundary positioned across the Florida peninsula will
lift northward over the northeast Florida waters on Wednesday,
keeping chances for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms in
place. This front will then shift south of our local waters late
this week.

Rip Currents: High risk for all area beaches today and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  68  81  66 /  60  20  20  10
SSI  81  72  82  71 /  50  30  20  20
JAX  84  71  84  70 /  50  30  30  20
SGJ  85  73  85  73 /  30  30  40  20
GNV  86  71  85  69 /  40  20  50  30
OCF  88  71  87  71 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-124-
     125-132-133-137-138-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$